全球外汇周报：分化的外汇市场

Global Sporadic evidence of USD debasement. Political risks for JPY and GBP. Table of Contents versus more fragile Asian FX. We assess risks from geopolitics, and the crypto sell-off. G10 ThemesEURUSD. We look for gradual (not rapid) EURUSD appreciation, for both US and non- US reasons.We look closer at bullish EUR factors JPY.January inflows into foreign asset Toshins exceeded ?2tn, with rising allocations toglobal and gold funds. Japanese outbound M&A announcements hit a record high for Jan Japan election. USD/JPY has upside into the weekend election, but post-election =intervention risk + room to price in BOJ hikes. Core USD/JPY range stays at 150-158. FAQ on the USD selloff: Rapid move (not base case):Gold >$6k; 3Oy UST >5.1%; CHF:We present 2 case studies on potential alternatives to the SNB framework for intervention:Denmark & Singapore.AUD: We raise our year-end'26 &'27 AUD/USD forecast to 0.73.A broad rally in commodities, appreciation in Asia FX and wider rate differentials central to our bull case.EM Themes CNY.Thedeepermeaning of CNY appreciation India FX. Add long INR vs SGD on trade-deal relief CEE. Trip Notes: dovish drift, budget brake Colombia.Monetary Policy Decision: The Villamizar approach Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+1 646 855 9342Adarsh Sinha We expect more range-bound USD vols around current level until further policy guidance FX and Rates StrategistMerill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7155adarsh.sinha@bofa.comClaudio Piron from Warsh. Consider short-dated AUDJPY call spread and EURGBP put spread to chaseexisting trends on non-USD crosses. Emerging Asia FI/FX Strategist+65 6678 0401claudio.piron@bofa.comSee Team Page for List of Analysts Technical Strategy down by the end of Marchand June 62%and 67%of the time w/negative averageandmedian returns (out of 21 signals), Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialBofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision Michalis RousakisClaudio Piron MLI (UK)michalis.rousakis@bofa.com Merrill Lynch (Singapore)claudio.piron@bofa.com G10 and EM FX medium-term views G10We are bearish on USD except vs JPY, looking for EUR-USD at 1.22 and USD-JPY at 155 by the year-end. We count on lower US rates, perhaps alongside higher Fed Our key forecastsExhibit 2: Key BofA G10 and EM FX forecasts Forecasts as of 5-Feb-2026 (EOP)YE 2023 WhatweparticularlylikerightnowExhibit 3: Our latest G10 and EM FX trade recommendations What we particularly like right now BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH For a complete list of our open trade recommendations, as well as our traderecommendations closed over the last 12 months, please see pages 26-29 Michalis Rousakis MLI (UK)michalis.rousakis@bofa.com US retail sales (Tue), payrolls (Wed), CPI (Fri). JP election (Sun). UK 4Q GDP (Thu), NO CPI (Tue), Swiss CPI (Fri) AMRS - BoC minutes (Wed) Europe -in the Euro area, 4Q GDP (2nd release, Fri), ECB speakers incl. Lane,Schnabel. In Norway, Norges Governor speech (Thu)APAC - Bo) Tamura speech (Fri), RBA speakers (Wed, Thu) G10 Central Bank callsExhibit 4: BofA G10 Central Bank calls No G10 central bank meetings next week Adarsh Sinha Merrill Lynch (Singapore)claudio.piron@bofa.com Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)adarsh.sinha@bofa.com Goldand tech rout-light footprint in G1oFX The rout in heavily positioned trades - gold and technology stocks - has left only a light footprint in G10 FX.The DXY strengthened moderately but remains confined to itsrecent range. This reflects both lighter positioning in G1O FX, but also reducedsensitivity to these asset classes in recent years (Exhibit 5). Technology stocks - to theextent they are increasingly driven by Al dynamics - create more crosscurrents for USDthan the traditional risk dynamic (see USD.ai- An FAQ on Al implications for the dollar05 November 2025). Similarly, the gold rally has been more symptomatic of fiat currencydebasement than just the historical correlation driven by the pricing of gold in USD. 0.8 There is, of course, some variance across currencies. The more heavily positioned ones,according to our realized skew metric, AUD, NZD and NOK, also have the highest betasto technology stocks and gold (Exhibit 6). Based on domestic fundamentals, we thinkshort NZD offers the best hedge should the rout extend. Sporadicevidenceof USD debasementThis week's price action-lower US stocks alongside a rally in UST & USD-serves as a reminder that the"debasement" configuration of lowerUSD &US asset prices has beensporadic at best. US policy surprises (April '25 and Jan '26) typically drove this dynamicin contrast to more sector-specific factors over the past week. Exhibit 7 shows th