流量秀：贬值是基本情况

Debasementis Da Base Case Scores on the Doors: gold 24.2%, oil 13.9%, commods 12.1%, global stocks 6.8%, USstocks 1.8%, HY bonds 1.1%, IG 1.1%, govt bonds 1.0%, US$ -2.2%, bitcoin -3.7% YTD. Zeitgeist: “Charts are better than sentiment,” HK trader. The Price is Right: silver 61%, Korea 28%, UFO 22%, Brazil 20%, SOX 17%, materials14%, oil 14%, Aussie dollar 5% YTD, beneficiaries as rate/tax/tariff cuts + Fed/Trump QEspark capitulation into liquidity and debasement trades. Tale of the Tape: US$ down 12% since Trump inauguration; note weak US$ goodpolicy to boost manufacturing in“rustbelt”swing states (PA, MI, WI); in both Trump 1st&2ndterms Presidential approval and US$ highly correlated (Charts 3 & 4); peak-to-troughdrop in US$ bears since’70 = 30% (gold & EM stocks big asset outperformers in each of5 US$ bear markets - Table 1 & Chart 15). The Biggest Picture: 10-year return from 25/25/25/25 stocks/bonds/gold/cash“permanent portfolio”= 8.7% (best since 1992 - Chart 2), follows 23% gain in’25 (bestyear since 1979–Chart 5); long gold was contrarian“pain trade”in 2020 for secularasset allocators…in 2026 it’s long bonds. 25/25/25/25 portfolio*: 10-year rolling annualized returns More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitablefor all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take Weekly Flows: $10.0bn to cash, $17.0bn to bonds, $6.7bn to gold, $0.4bn from crypto,$15.4bn from stocks. Flows to Know: •Gold: $6.7bn inflow, biggest since Oct’25;•Materials: record $11.8bn inflow (Chart 16);•Energy: $2.3bn inflow, biggest since Oct’23 (Chart 17);•Infrastructure: $0.8bn inflow, biggest since Jun’22 (Chart 18);•Utilities: $0.8bn outflow, biggest since Nov’24 (Chart 19);•China equities: record $60.5bn outflow, 2ndweek of big outflow (we say likelyrelated to“national team”selling1- Chart 20). BofA Private Clients: $4.4tn AUM…64.4% stocks, 17.7% bonds, 10.7% cash; past 4weeks private clients buying IG bond, muni bond, and TIPS ETFS, selling REIT, HY bond,and value stock ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: up to extreme bull 9.4 from 9.2 on strong global stockindex breadth, long-only bull positioning (e.g., record low 3.2% FMS cash level), androbust credit market technicals, which offset global equity outflows; BofA Bull & BearIndicator“sell signal”still in operation; note“old”B&B Indicator2down to 6.4 from 7.0. BofA Global Breadth Rule: 89% of MSCI global stock indices trading above both 50-day & 200-day moving averages this week…stocks in“overbought”territory (rule is>88% =“sell signal”for risk assets). 2020s: 2020s investment trends (Chart 6)…political populism, globalization to nationalsecurity, global fiscal excess, Fed independence to deference, US exceptionalism toglobal rebalancing, AI nationalization, AI = UBI = YCC…why gold going“bubbly”(Chart 7),why new bulls in small/mid cap & international equities, why US$ debasement tradesfrontrunning risk of peaks in US 64% global equity market cap, 55% global corporatebond market, 50% global government bond market (if non-US asset allocators cut stock& Treasury holdings by 5% = $1.5tn capital outflow3at time of $1.4tn current accountdeficit & $1.7tn budget deficit; BIG + MID in 2026: fave trades for 2026… •long Bonds…Main St disinflation & Wall St deleveraging hedge…buy 30-yearTreasury as yield approaches 5%;•long International…New World Order = New World Bull + US exceptionalism flips toglobal rebalancing…buy China to position for end of China deflation & potentialpolitical change (Chart 13);•long gold…world’s favorite US$ debasement hedge & great gold bulls only ended bygreat events (end of Nixon in '74, Volcker rate shock in '80, end of EU debt crisis in '12, COVID vaccine in '20–Chart 8); gold/silver nutty overbought short-term (Chart9)…long oil better debasement play; •long midcap stocks…best plays for Main St“boom”& MAGA manufacturingrenaissance…buy any retracement to new floors for Midcap 400 (MID 3333) &Smallcap 600 (SML 1500); •short IG tech bonds…big Tech AI flip from asset-light to asset-heavy business modelmean bonds new regulators of AI capex & bonds saying“slow it down”(Chart 10); •short US dollar…peak US exceptionalism + weak US$ aids financing of $39tnnational debt (up $15tn or 64% in past 5 years) needed to maintain economic boom(US nominal GDP $31tn, up $11tn or 58% in past 5 years–Chart 14)…DXY to 90means buy any retracement to new floors for Emerging Markets (MXEF 1400) &natural resources (SPGNRUP 3500). Debasement Da Base Case:gold now at level that implies negative real rates in US(Chart 11)…excess liquidity, US$ debasement, US