流量秀：两半游戏

2-year UST yield (%)P. VolckerA. Greenspan16 May '87 12845481BofA GLOBAL RESEARCHB. Bernanke24 Jan'06J. Yellen9 Oct'13J. Powell2 Nov'17 26 June 2025Investment StrategyGlobalMichael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.comElyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.comAnya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.comMyung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.comChart1: BofA Bull & Bear IndicatorRises to5.8from5.5Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.ExtremeBearishBuy2 BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH46 2The Flow Show| 26 June 2025Weekly Flows: $26.1bn to cash, $12.1bn to bonds, $3.5bn to equities, $2.8bn to gold,$2.1bn to crypto.Weekly Flows to Know:•IG bonds: smallest inflow in 8 weeks ($1.3bn),•EM debt: record weekly inflow ($5.8bn–Chart 6),•US small cap: biggest outflow since Dec’24 ($4.4bn–Chart 7),•Healthcare: biggest inflow since Feb’25 ($0.6bn).H1'25 Flows to Know: for all the Sturm und Drang every asset class blessed byinflows…$427bn to cash, $325bn to stocks, $269bn to bonds, $40bn to gold (record),$17bn to crypto... only flow laggards were small cap & healthcare funds…•US stocks: $164bn inflow, on course for 3rdlargest annual inflow ever,•Europe stocks: $46bn inflow, on course for 2ndlargest annual inflow ever,•Large cap stocks: $224bn inflow, on course for record annual inflow in '25,•US small cap: $35bn outflow, on course for record annual outflow in '25,•Healthcare: $13bn outflow, on course for record annual outflow in '25.BofA Private Clients: $3.9tn AUM…63.1% stocks, 18.8% bonds, 11.0% cash (underhood Magnificent 7 stocks = 14.8% of AUM (common stocks & ETFs), US Treasurybonds (2-30-year) = 3.6%, international stocks = 3.4% (common stocks & ETFs), gold =0.4% of AUM…Bonds, International, Gold, i.e. no big length in Bonds, International, Gold;in ETFs private clients buying HY, MLP, low-vol funds, selling Japan, high-dividend, techfunds past 4 weeks.BofA Bull & Bear Indicator:rises to 5.8 from 5.5, highest since Nov'24, on falling FMScash levels, strong global stock index breadth, rising inflows to risky assets such as EMequity & debt funds, offset by more bearish hedge fund positioning (CFTC data showshedge funds adding protection against lower S&P 500).BofA Global Breadth Rule: good tactical oversold/overbought contrarian rule…when>88% of MSCI ACWI country stock indices trading above 50- and 200-day movingaverages…sell, when >88% trading below…buy; currently 73% of MSCI ACWI countrystock indices trading above 50- and 200-day moving averages in past week, and Julymove in S&P 500 >6300 would likely trigger "sell signal".BofA Global Flow Trading Rule: good tactical greed/fear contrarian rule…when flowsto global equity & high yield bonds exceed 1.0% of AUM in 4 weeks…sell, when outflows>1.0% of AUM... buy; past 4 weeksinflows to global equity/HY bonds precisely 0.99% sogreedy inflows saying take some profits off the table (note only time to ignore tradingrules is in a bubble or a crash).On Price & Positioning: contrarian trades worked in H1, no guarantee they work in H2(especially as US$ and gold aside no big positioning extremes in Jun), but for what it’sworth contrarian trades for H2 based on H1 performance, sentiment, flows are…•Long US dollar,•Long oil, short gold,•Long US consumer discretionary, short EU banks, •Long airlines, short defense,•Long Mag7, short China tech,•Long REITs/homebuilders, short infrastructure,•Long small cap value, short momentum.On Policy: policy setup into H2’25 less threatening given potential for Fed cuts &Trump obeying Wall St and backing away from asset negative DOGE & tariffs…•Bad news: US trade policy…tariff concerns have peaked but US effective tariff ratefloor looks set to be 10%, big rise from 2% in 2024, effectively $400bn global taxrise for foreignexporters, domestic importers, US consumers (would rise to $700bnJuly 9thif no trade deals cause US to impose additional reciprocal tariffs but marketdoes not expect this outcome),•Bad news: US government spending…currently flat YoY, set to decline $50bn in’26,big reversal from prior years of fiscal excess (note US government spend rose$650bn to $7tn in '24),•Good news: US tax cuts…Big Beautiful Bill set to cut US taxes $90bn per annumfrom’26 onward,•Good news: Europe/NATO/China fiscal stimulus…govt spending to increase $110bnin Germany next 18 months, $90bn across NATO in '26, $40bn in China in '25,•Good news: global monetary policy…64 rate cuts YTD…‘25 on track to be biggestyear of global rate cuts sinc