日本央行脉搏检查：日本央行希望监测关税发展情况，但其假设似乎过于谨慎，而通胀数据看起来强劲，债券损失拨备意味着为更高的政策利率做准备。我们仍然认为1月是下一次加息的基本情况，风险倾向于更早加息。

Restricted - External Naohiko Baba+ 81 3 4530 1378naohiko.baba@barclays.comBSJL, JapanRyuichiro Hashimoto+81 3 4530 1372ryuichiro.hashimoto@barclays.comBSJL, Japan superlong yields, Ueda responded to a question in the Diet on 28 May with remarks that it thereis a need to bear in mind the possibility of this rise reaching the shorter-term sectors, wherethere are larger impacts on the economy. This comment is likely based on the BoJ’s ownanalysis showing that the yields in the short/medium term sectors are far more important to theeconomy than those in the superlong sector. The BoJ may see the superlong sector as an issuelinked to supply and demand that should be addressed chiefly through a reduction in issuancerather than the BoJ's JGB purchases.Finally, the BoJ’s FY24 financial statements released on 28 May revealed that it has booked100% of the funds to cover provisions for possible losses on bond transactions (a record high).These reserves function as abufferagainst the negative margins inevitable duringnormalization since they can be drawn down for up to 50% of any losses that result from theBoJ’s interest payment on excess reserves exceeding the yield on its JGB holdingsaccompanying future rate hikes. In other words, the latest measures indicate the BoJ's clearintention to proceed with rate hikes by preparing for the related future burden while its JGBinterest income is still large.2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Ryuichiro Hashimoto and Naohiko Baba, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal viewsabout any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays").All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the Investment Banking Department), theprofitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of the firm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset classcovered by the analyst. To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from Barclays trading desks, the firm makes norepresentation that it is accurate or complete. All levels, prices and spreads are historical and do not necessarily represent current market levels, pricesor spreads, some or all of which may have changed since the publication of this document. Barclays Research Department produces various types ofresearch including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations andtrade ideas contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types of Barclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/CM.htm.D