SK海力士：AI推动基本面与盈利基准线迎新格局

SK Hynix (000660 KP) Buy: Al driving a new fundamental and earnings baseline Korea Robust 4Q results thanks to sharp turnaround in NAND MAINTAIN BUY → Tripling OP in 2026 amid memory supercycle; focus movingto NAND memory storage from HBM and server DRAM TARGET PRICE (KRW)PREVOUS TARGET (KRW)1,300,0001,050,000SHARE PRICE (KRW)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE861,000+51.0%(as of 29 Jan 2026) → Maintain Buy with new TP of KRW1.30m (from KRW1.05m) Robust 4Q results: SK Hynix (SKH) 4Q operating profit hovered 8% higher than our* %+) e sas ( %) e se+66%y-0-y)thanks to strongerNAND shipments and ASPs at +9%and +29% (vsHSBCe: flat,+20%) respectively, due to soaring inferencing activities demandingmore eSSD for KV caching. NAND margins reached 30% from -1% in 3Q25. SoaringDRAM ASP at +24% q-0-q as well as KRW depreciation also supported earnings More than tripling OP growth in 2026e: On 1) continued commodity DRAM and NANDrally, we see 1Q OP at KRW28tn (+45% q-0-q) with sales of KRW47tn (+25% q-0-q)Higher DRAM and NAND blended ASP rising 31% and 25% q--g; 2) 1cnm (DDR5) and1bnm (HBM) tech migration should support margin lexpansion; 3) SO-CAMM2 and HBM4shoulddrivefurtherAsPgrowthwithpremiumi,and4)costleadershipineSsDandfaster321 layer transition should further b0ost'NAND margins to 45% in 4Q26 (from 9% in2025). We see 2026e QP at KRW151trn (+219% y-0-y). Sharp NANR domand surge is a next catalyst: The core of memory demand isshortage. The change in Al server structure will demand more memorynot only forDRAM, but also NAND, as a form of inference context memory storage (ICMS) in theeffort to 1) improve response time for large language models (LLM) and agentic Alservices while making a 2) less expensive token management system that is 3) larger.Solution providers optimise memory hierarchy by adding NAND storage near GPUlinked by DPU (data process units). NVIDIA recently announced Bluefield-4 (DPU) for2H commercialisation with Vera Rubin. We assume this will give significant upside inNAND demand with an additional 2-5% until CY2027. Hynix will be one of the keybeneficiaries with a 27% market share in the NAND market in 3Q25. Ricky Seo*HeadofKoreaResearch,SemiconductorandDisplayThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited,SeoulSecuritiesBranchrickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com+82237068777 Supercycle similar to 1990-95: SKH should be a key beneficiary from the 4-5 yearupcycle; we assume the DRAM market will reach USD454bn in sales by 2027, 775%higher than 2023. Cost savings through Al adoption will support data centreinvestment. We highlight: 1) incremental Al capex by neo-CsPs and OpenAl on topof major CsPs; 2) limited memory capacity increases until mid-2027; 3) strong serverand IcMS demand; 4)3.5xmore DRAMfromRubin Ultra; and5) eSSD demand forcluster storage to boost memory market growth. HanKil ChangResearch Analyst, Korea TechnologyTheHongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoui Securities Branchhan.kil.chang@kr.hsbc.com+822 3706 8750 Maintain Buy with new TP of KRW1.30m (from KRW1.05m): Factoring in the fasterprice increase from robust demand, we lift our 2025/26/27 OP estimates by3%/29%/46%. Hynix will further benefit from the commodity DRAM rally along withHBM4 transition and we raise our TP to KRW1.30m (no change in methodology)Key risks: 1) higher US interest rates as neo-CSPs and Open Al implement investment * Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualfied pursuant to FINRAregulations Pushing the accelerator into 2026 The 22nd edition of the EM Sentiment Survey Click to view Issuer ofreport:TheHongkongand ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBc Global Investment Researchat:https:/www.research.hsbc.com New Al server structure of NVIDIA UpcyclesDetails(1) 1990-1995(2) 1998-2000Strong replacement demand from the Y2K' crisis, leadingrto.even stronger PC replacementinvestment(3) 2002-2006(4) 2009-2010Launch of the world's first smartphone, anc start of a new era in mobile application demand(5) 2012-2015Prolonged upcycle due to sudden stpply reduction from major fire incidentin SK Hynix's China facilties数据加V(6) 2016-2018(7)2020-2022Unprecegented cemand boom from 'WFH trend causing more demand for PC, Chromebooks, and Tablet computers amid the global pandemic调研纪 Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC esimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: TrendForce, HSBC esimates Source: HSBC estimaltes (see: Global tech- Open Al: Commitments vs cash flowsSource: Company data, Bloomberg consensus. Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company dala, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Sour