卡特彼勒：订单积压庞大，需求强劲，估值偏高

Chad Dillard+19173448469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Miguel Marques,CFA+19173448432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Steve Song+19173448401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 678.00 USD (630.00 OLD) Caterpillar: Monster backlog, strong demand, tough valuation CAT reported a strong 4Q. Top line results beat, but margins remained pressured as price(ex-P&E)remainednegative,andtariffcostsremainelevated.Nonetheless,strongdemandindicators led the day as the stock finished up 3%. Demand indicators are strengthening,demand is broadening out, price is inflecting positive, and Y/Y tariff headwinds are easing. Westruggle to find upside with the stock at 30x street '26 EPS, well above typical peak. Blow-out backlog & orders, led by Power Gen. CAI reported backlog of $51.2B (up$11.3B Q/Q), beating street by 21%, implyipgjor ders of $29.6B, up 56% Q/Q and a 1.6xB2B. Mgmt stated they're seeing "orders for prime power trend higher as data centercustomers look for alternative powWer'solutions to keep pace with their growth" Moreover,yesterday's news of'cAT's partnership to deliver 2 GW of nat gas gensets to MonarchComputeCaipusrepresentedoneofCAT'slargestsingleordersforcompletepowersofJtions, which is expected to enter backlog in 1Q26 and suggests further backlcg glWth. Demand broadening; points to upside to '26 guidance. Mgmt is guiding sales & revenuesto grow at top end of their 5-7% CAGR target. This implies 62% of current backlog to bedelivered in the NTM, lower than historical average. Upside could come from: 1) acceleratingcapacity additions in Power Gen (greater impact in '2 7), 2) power demand is broadeningbeyond Power Gen applications (e.g., retail sales in Oil & Gas, Transportation and Industrialall up double-digits in 4Q), and 3) Construction and Resource demand is accelerating; 4QConstruction retail sales exceeded expectations and dealers are stocking inventories, andResource saw its best order run rate since '21 on the back of copper mining in S. America. Tariffs to be a $2.6B impact in'26 (S800M in 10); headwind easing, will be furthersoftened by price. On top of improved volumes, CAT is guiding to FY price of +2% Y/Y (upfrom-1.3%in'25).Tariffsareholdingbackoperatingleverageonthis,withmgmt.guidingFYadj. margin to finish at the low end of its target range, but expected to improve sequentiallyand exhibit a strong exit rate into 27. InvestmentImplications Our26EPSsettlesat~$22.WerollourTPforwardtogetto$678,or2%upside DETAILS We remain Market-Perform and raise our TP to $678 (up from $630). We roll our target price forward to reflect 24x, a mid-cyclemultiple, on our *27 EPS (down from 28x on our *26 EPS). EXHIBIT 5: Power & Energy Strength is Broadening Beyond Power Gen. While Power Gen Remains the Leader, RetailSales for Every Other Category is Accelerating APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS Chad Dillard +1 917 344 8469 chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE I.REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited 盛博香港有限公司, Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordSanford C.Bernstein Japan KK(才一·C·八株式会社). otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's “affiliates"” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY CaterpillarInc Our $678 pricetarget is based on a 24x P/E multiple to our 2027 EPS, which is appropriate due to (a) where we are in the currentcycle and (b) the relative distance between next year's earnings and the company's normalized earnings power RISKS CaterpillarInc Upside/Downside risks include the following: 1) a better/worse than expected cyclical recovery; 2) faster/slower rebound in theoil & gas end markets; 3) stronger/weaker recovery in the const?uction end markets; 4) better/worse cost structure management;5) more/less aggressive deployment of balance sheetnushuimu2026 RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION研报 EQUITY RATINGS PEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative perforrnance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturnIndex (EDM)forstockslistedontheEuropeanexchangesand emerging marketsexchanges outsideoftheAsiaPacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges.and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges-unlessotherwisespecified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: : Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than