固定收益每日市场动态

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 HYNMTRFRNs were 1-2bps tighter this morning.KUAISH slightlyrecovered to 1bp tighter. There were two-way flows on ZHOSHK 28 but thespread was unchanged. FAEACO 12.814 Perp/VNKRLE 27 were 1.0-1.2pts Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk WESCHI:To issue USD300mn WESCHI 29 to fund concurrent tender offerfor USD200mn WESCHI 26. WESCHI 26-28 were 0.4-1.0pt higher this Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:PMI signals demand softening. CMBI expects a 50bp cutin RRR and a 10bp cut in LPR in 1Q26, followed by an additional 10bp LPRcut in 3Q26, while broad fiscal deficit should remain almost flat at 8.5% in2026. We expect full-year GDP growth rate may decline from 5% in 2025 to Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Last Friday,financial FRNs traded 1bp wider. In HK, the NWDEVL/VDNWDLcomplexsurged another 0.5-3.0pts,following the market rumors thatBlackstonemight become NWD’s single largest shareholder,but noagreementhas been reached yet.FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.5pts.SHUION 26-29 edged 0.2-0.6pt higher. SUNHKC 26 was 0.1pt lower, whileSUNHKC 29was 0.3pt higher. TW lifers were 2-4bps wider amid streetselling on NSINTW/SHIKON. Long-end MEITUA/KUAISH also widened 2-3bps. EHICAR 26 was down by 0.6pt. WESCHI 26-28 were 0.1pt higher.WESCHI will issue USD300mn bond and launched concurrent tender offerfor WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26. See comments below. In Chinese properties,VNKRLEs rose 1.8-2.7pts. Meanwhile, Vanke expects a net loss of RMB82bn(cUSD12bn) in FY25. FUTLAN 28 edged 1.1pts higher, and FTLNHD 26-27were 0.1-0.2pt higher. LNGFOR 27-32 were 0.2pt lower to 0.2pt higher. InSEAsian space,OCBCSP/UOBSP traded 1-2bps wider.IHFLIN 27-30/TOPTB 6.1 Perp were unchanged to 0.1pt lower. The ReNew Energycomplex and MEDCIJ 26-30s/SMCGL Perps were 0.1pt lower to 0.2pt higher.VLLPM27-29 rose 1.0-1.3pts.GLPSP Perps were up by 0.5-0.9pt.Meanwhile, softness in JP insurance subs like RESLIF 6.875 Perp persistedas the bonds leaked by another 0.1pt. NTT 35/MUFG35-36 were 1-3bpswider. Yankee AT1s were another 0.3pt weaker from late Friday morning andinto London session. We saw prop desks and London accounts trimming Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (-0.43%), Dow (-0.36%) and Nasdaq (-0.94%) were lower on last Friday. Trump nominated KevinWarsh to lead Federal Reserve. US Dec’25 PPI was +0.5% mom, higher than the market expectation of +0.2%.2/5 year UST yield was higher while 10/30 yearUST yield was lower on last Friday. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 WESCHI:Toissue USD300mn WESCHI 29 to fund concurrent tender offer for USD200mn WESCHI 26 West China Cement (Weschi) launched a tender offer for its USD200mn WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26. The tenderprice is 101.238, equivalent to the bond’s call price. Weschi will accept any and all of the amounts tendered,and the offer expires on 6 Feb’26 5pm CET. Weschi plans to exercise the call option to redeem WESCHI 26 in Concurrently, Weschi will issue USD300mn WESCHI 10.5 11/11/29 (-/B/B). Net proceeds will be usedtorefinance existing debts, including funding the tender offer and early redemption for WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26.We maintain buy on WESCHI 9.9 12/04/28 for its good carry. At 100.3, WESCHI 28 is trading at YTM of 9.8%,which was up c2pts YTD. Weschi’s earnings improved in 1H25, and we view near-term refinancing risk as lowerfollowing the tender offer for WESCHI 26 in Dec’25, where Weschi issued WESCHI 28 to fund the tender offer China Economy: PMI signals demand softening China’s manufacturing PMIretreated in January after a brief December rebound with weaker seasonalitydespite a later-than-usual Chinese New Year (CNY). Demand softened as both new orders slipped back into contraction and export orders weakened again. Deflation pressure nevertheless continued to ease, with rawmaterial purchase and ex-factory prices both expanding, indicating PPI may return to positive sooner thanexpected. Service PMI remained in contraction while construction PMI fell back, signaling mounting pressureto stabilizethe fixed asset investment. We expect the softening growth momentum from both domestic andexternal demand deterioration should trigger a new round of policy stimulus around CNY, including stabilizing Manufacturing PMI eased after the December rebound.Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% in January from50.1% in December, slipping back into contraction and fell short of market expectation at 50.2%. Demandconditions softened as the new order index declined to 49.2% from 50.8%, while new export orders fell to 47.8%from 49.0%. Production eased but stayed in expansionat 50.6% in Jan vs. 51.7% in Dec, indicating supply-side resilience despite softer demand. Deflation pressure continued to ease as raw material purchase prices Non-manufacturing PMI softened.Non-manufacturing activity weakened in January ahead of the CNY, withservices remaini