2026-27年存储超级周期

Weekly theme: memory industry modelupdate,softening DRAM spot, LGE upside Price Objective Change Global DRAM/NAND sales forecasts raised by 25% We updated our global memory+HBM industry model following Samsung Electronics’and SK Hynix’s 4Q25 earnings results. Key changes to our 2026 estimates vs earlierinclude: 1) 20%+ higher ASPs (for both DRAM and NAND); 2) slightly higher bit growth;3) capex increase, largely driven by HBM and infrastructure investments (shell fab,power, etc.); 4) a larger market size of HBM with stronger demand (from US Big Tech)and Samsung’s more successful HBM4 ramp-up; 5) OEM production cuts after DRAMshortages or high memory costs (but still low impact on total memory demand due tosustained solid AI server growth); and 6) multi-year growth or super-cycle sustainable,but we assume just stable ASPs through 2Q/2H26 and then sub-10% correction in 2027.Overall, we expect both DRAM/NAND global sales to grow from US$134bn/US$81bn in2025 to US$262bn/US$147bm (+95%/+82% YoY) on the back of 50-60% ASP increase. DRAM spotsoftens for the first time since Sep 2025 DRAM spot prices eventually softened this week vsthe ongoing rally over the past 4-5months. It is premature to consider this as an early sign of hard-landing, but many OEMshave already indicated that DRAM cost (at current spot prices) exceeds their low-endPC/smartphone/table selling prices. Typically, DRAM cost is sub-10% of product price.That said, some memory module makers have alluded to their high interest in buyingmore DDR4 or DDR5 if the prices fall back to US$20-30 range, regardless of density(8Gb or 16Gb) or specs (DDR4 or DDR5). Currently, two DRAM categories are pricedUS$30+ per unit: 16Gb DDR5 & 8Gb DDR4 vs US$70+ range for 16Gb DDR4. Of course,current contract prices offered to large Tier-1 OEMs still range US$10-20 per GB, in ourview. We still see a large gap between spot and contract price. Thus, spot price shouldfall back to the contract price level. Interestingly, NAND spot rose further this week (1Tbor 512Gb up 5-6%) coupled with tight supply (lagging impact of 1H25 production cut). LGE looks better amid memory shortageconcernsLG Electronics (LGE; 066570 KS) delivered bullish guidance at 4Q25 earnings call (30 Jan). Five reasons: 1) well-managed US tariffs (2025 OP was mid-to-up cycle); 2) solidmargins (among home appliances, auto parts and HVAC); 3) TV business restructuring (nomore large loss from 2026); and 4) long-term growth catalysts with data center chillersand robotics (industrial, humanoid, in-house motor/actuator components). Our analysisalso reveals low impact of memory shortages, given LGE’s products are mostly based onnon-memory components/materials. We assume 1-2ppt higher OPM for auto parts andTV businesses (vs earlier forecasts), which leads to +11% higher EPS for 2026E. Againstthis backdrop, we raise PO from W130k to W140k using an unchanged 2026E P/B of1.0x. LGE is one of our top picks for Korea hardware tech. We now expect many OEMs tosuffer from cost increases or production cut due to memory supply shortages. Global memory cycle upturn likely to continue in 2026-27E Exhibit3:We expect global DRAM sales tostronglygrow+95% YoY in 2026Eeven after 86%/52%in 2024/25; key contributor should be Hynix’s HBMandstrong ASP rebound (+65% YoY). NAND also is expected to grow +82% YoY in 2026, after low-single digit growth in 2025, driven by ASP (+53% YoY)Global memory forecast summary Global memory forecast revisions Exhibit7:Both DRAM and NAND fabs fully utilized ex old idlecapacity as of 1Q26Memory chipmakers' fab utilization Exhibit6:Historical low level in 1Q26; lower than normal (1-2months)Memory chipmakers' inventories-finished chips in weeks DRAM sales mix and ASP by application NAND sales mix and ASP by application Record high capex includes heavy infrastructure spending Exhibit13:DRAM capex increaselikely to remain strong even in 2026driven by Hynix andSamsung ; NAND capex growth also notable (due to low base)SPE capex spend by memory chipmakers 2026E HBM TAM expansion to US$60bn Exhibit14:Wemaintain our bullish view on HBM. We assume strong growth in 2026 sales (US$60bn; +74% YoY). This is based on a limited price cut(blended ASP -3%; similar to 5-10% cost reduction; 5-10% price cut for 12-hi HBM3e offset by a 20% price premium for HBM4) and robust bit growth(+80%). Hynix’s proven 12-hi HBM3e and HBM4 (mass production started in 4Q25) should be the key contributors; industry average OPM above 40%thanks to Hynix’s high margin profile (60%+); no downturn in 2027 given volume growth and cost reduction fully offset price cutGlobal HBM market–record high revenue continues into 2025/26/27E(US$35bn/60bn/79bn) Global HBM market share by company SK Hynix–HBM earnings outlook still stronger than Samsung’s SEC–HBM earnings outlook Exhibit20:Latest GPU/ASICs launched in 2H25: 288GB HBM3e(Blackwell Ultra, MI350X), 144GB (Trainium3), 192GB (TPU v7)Major AI accelerators launched in 2025 Exhibit2