保险杠龙头，拓展切入人形机器人赛道

保險杠龍頭，拓展切入人形機器人賽道 30January 2026 中國|汽車零部件|首次覆蓋 買入（首次）現價CNY12.68(現價截至1月29日)目標價CNY 16.45 (+29.7%) 公司簡介： 模塑科技公司是中國領先的汽車零部件供應商，主營業務聚焦於汽車保險杠等汽車外飾系統及輕量化零部件的研發、生產和銷售。公司年汽車保險杠生產能力達600萬套以上，在無錫、上海、瀋陽、武漢、煙臺、墨西哥設有生產基地，在北京、上海及江陰設有研發中心。參股公司北汽模塑在北京、合肥、重慶、成都、株洲設立生產基地。公司2024年營業收入71.36億元（人民幣，下同），同比-18.18%，淨利潤6.26億元，同比+39.46%。 公司資料 普通股股東(百萬股) :918市值(人民幣百萬元) :1164052周最高價/最低價(人民幣元) :15.65/ 5.55 投資概要 25年短期業績承壓 2025年前三季度，公司實現營業收入/歸母淨利潤/扣非淨利潤分別為51.07億元/3.75億元/3.46億元（人民幣，下同），同比增長分別為-2.7%/-30.42%/-25.12%，銷售毛利率為19.57%，同比+1.15pct。下游新勢力車企客戶的銷量增長，對沖了豪華車客戶銷量下降，公司收入增速好於行業平均。 主要股東% Q3單季，公司實現營業收入/歸母淨利潤/扣非淨利潤分別為17.08億元/0.82億元/1.04億元，同比分別+0.52%/-54.74%/-22.7%，環比分別-5.08%/-43.63%/-0.7%；Q3單季毛利率/淨利率分別為19.6%/4.8%，同比+0.8/-5.8pcts，環比+1.2/-3.3pcts，毛利率向上修復，淨利率反下滑主要系受匯兌損失和投資收益減少所致。。 優質客戶覆蓋，新訂單奠定未來成長基礎 公司客戶資源優質，核心客戶覆蓋全球豪華品牌與新能源車企，主要客戶包括：寶馬、北京奔馳、上汽奧迪、北美知名電動車企、上汽通用、上汽大眾、奇瑞捷豹路虎、沃爾沃、比亞迪、吉利、長城、神龍、蔚來、理想、小鵬等。保持豪華車企優勢的基礎上，公司大力開拓新能源汽車業務，積極開發國內外增量市場，所獲新訂單支撐未來成長。 2025年1月，公司接到國內某知名新能源客戶發出的三個車型外飾件產品項目定點，項目預計2026年5月開始量產，生命週期3年，預計生命週期總銷售額12.3-13.2億元人民幣。 2025年4月和7月，全資子公司瀋陽名華接到某頭部豪華車客戶發出的外飾件產品項目定點，項目預計分別於2027年4月和2028年1月開始量產，生命週期8/5年，預計生命週期總銷售額20.7/20.44億元。 研究員章晶(+ 86 021-6351 2939)zhangjing@phillip.com.cn 2025年7月，墨西哥名華收到北美知名電動車企外飾件產品項目定點，項目預計2026年1月開始量產，項目生命週期5年，預計生命週期總銷售額12.36億元人民幣。 把握產業風口，切入人形機器人賽道 12月16日，公司公告與國內某機器人公司簽訂了零部件採購框架協議，並於近日正式接到客戶發出的人形機器人外覆蓋件小批量採購訂單。本次獲得人形機器人外覆蓋件小批量採購訂單，是公司切入人形機器人賽道的關鍵里程碑，標誌著公司的製造工藝和品質保障體系獲得了客戶認可，為後續拓展更多機器人客戶資源、擴大市場份額奠定基礎。 投資建議 公司的汽車保險杠等主營業務穩健發展，持續獲得客戶項目定點，同時開拓人形機器人業務新領域，業績有增長潛力，預計2025-2027年公司每股收益為0.51/0.61/0.73元，給予26年27倍預計市盈率，目標價16.45元，買入評級。(現價截至1月29日) 風險 新業務推進進度體低於預期下游行業銷量受宏觀經濟倒退不及預期原材料價格急劇上漲或產品價格急劇下滑海外市場風險 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands.We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) astock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculativeundertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct orconsequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason tobelieve are unreliable and any analysis,forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of beliefonly. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate,complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall nothave any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event willPhillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research madeavailable, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of anyparticular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from afinancial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person,before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independentverification and exercise of judgment. Thefact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any productdescribed in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the productswhich may be described in this publicationinvolve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless allsuch risks are understood and a