工业硅2月报：盘面或冲高回落，关注大厂减产动向

第一部分前言概要.................................................................................................................................................2【【【【【【...................................................................................................................................................2【交易逻辑】...................................................................................................................................................2【【【【【【...................................................................................................................................................2第二部分基本面情况...........................................................................................................................................3一、行情回顾...................................................................................................................................................3二、需求：2月工业硅需求环比走弱............................................................................................................5三、供应：2月工业硅产量主要关注龙头大厂减产计划............................................................................8四、成本及库存：成本暂稳，库存高企但不显著利空..............................................................................10第三部分后市展望及策略推荐.........................................................................................................................11免责声明.................................................................................................................................................................12 工业硅2月报 盘面或冲高回落，关注大厂减产动向 第一部分前言概要 【供需展望】 交易咨询业务资格： 【【【【[2011]1428【研究员：【【【电话：邮箱：chenhansong_qh@chinastock.com.cn期货从业资格证号：F03129697投资咨询资格证号：Z0020351 2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【1【【【1.5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【6-7【【【30【【【 作者承诺 【交易逻辑】 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【9500【/【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【3【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8500,9500【【 【策略推荐】 1.【【【【【【【【【【【【【8500,9500【2.【【【【【3.【【【【【【【【【【【【【风险提示：大厂减产不及预期 工业硅2月报 第二部分基本面情况 一、行情回顾 1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【8400,9100【【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 工业硅2月报 工业硅2月报 2026年1月30日 二、需求：2月工业硅需求环比走弱 1、2月DMC产量环比降低 2025【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2024【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2025【11【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【40【【【【【【【【【【【2026【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【DMC【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【DMC【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【Wind【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【iFIND 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 工业硅2月报 2026年1月30日 2、2月多晶硅产量降低 【【1【【【【【【【【【【【10【【【【9【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【12【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【33-34【【【【【【【【【【【【【120【【【2025【【【【【【【【【【【2026【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【1【【【【8.16【【【 工业硅2月报 3、铝合金和出口对工业硅的需求有韧性 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2025【10【1【【【【【2025【10【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2025【12【【【【【【【5.90【【【【【【【8%【【【【【2%【2025【1-12【【【【【【【【【【【72.06【【【【【【【1%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2026【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【iFIND 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 工业硅2月报 2026年1月30日 三、供应：2月工业硅产量主要关注龙头大厂减产计划 【【1【【【【【【221【【【【【【【【【【【137【【【【【【11【【【【【【18【;【【【61.99%【1【【【【247950【【【【【【1350【【【【【【84920【【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【30-40【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【6-7【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【1【【【【【【148【【【【【【【【【12【【【【【【【【【【【8.1%【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【18000【【【【【【1000【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【0【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【35【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【31【【【【【 工业硅2月报 2026年1月30日 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 工业硅2月报 2026年1月30日 四、成本及库存：成本暂稳，库存高企但不显著利空 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【【99.6【【【【【【【55.6【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【21.58【【【【【【【【【23.43【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【6.5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 工业硅2月报 2026年1月30日 【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 【【【【【【【【【【SMM 第三部分后市展望及策略推荐 供需展望：2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【1【【【1.5【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【1【【【【6-7【【【30【【【 交易逻辑：【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【2【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【【