首席经济学家展望（英）

I N S I G H TR E P O R T Contents Executive summary 1 Economic risks outlook Asset valuationsDebt and spending 2 Growth, policy and geoeconomic outlook Trade and investment outlookRegional growth and policy expectations 3 AI adoption outlook Regional adoption Industry adoption Contributors Endnotes Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated and ©2026 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopying January 2026Chief Economists’ This briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well asconsultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economicenvironment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and The survey featured in this briefing was conducted from 19 November Executive summary With 53% of chief economists expecting globaleconomic conditions to weaken, 28% expectingno change and 19% expecting a stronger economy,the prospects for the global economy tilt towards access to essential technologies and resources. Theoutlook for global trade is mixed, with some regionspositioned to benefit from emerging opportunitieswhile others face challenges from protectionistmeasures and policy uncertainty. Foreign direct Drawing on a survey and dialogue with leadingchief economists, the World Economic Forum’s latestChief Economists’ Outlook identifies downside risksin the form of inflated asset values, building debtpressures and intensifying geopolitical tensions,which are shifting trade and investment patterns. The rapid adoption of AI stands out as both asource of optimism and a catalyst for disruption.While the potential for significant productivityimprovements is widely acknowledged, the paceand distribution of these benefits are expected tovary considerably across regions, industries and In a volatile environment, financial markets havemaintained an upward trend, sparking debateabout the sustainability of current valuations.Some economists have highlighted risks associatedwith asset bubbles and the possibility of abruptcorrections, while others point out the underlying Regional growth trajectories reflect the complexinteraction of these forces. The US is experiencinga surge in investment in AI and data centreinfrastructure, fuelling hopes for a productivityrevival even as questions persist about the scopeand durability of these gains. China is managinga delicate balance between external demand anddomestic pressures, leveraging technologicalinnovation to maintain momentum. Europe faces The issue of debt, both public and private,has moved to the forefront as governments andcorporations contend with the legacy of prolongedborrowing and managing elevated debt levels,prompting a reassessment of fiscal approaches.Areas such as defence, digital infrastructure andenergy are expected to command larger shares The prevailing mood is one of vigilant anticipation,with the potential for rapid shifts in sentiment ever-present. The decisions made by governments,businesses and workers in the year ahead willbe pivotal in determining whether this period oftechnological, geopolitical and economic change Trade and investment flows are adapting to anew era characterized by strategic competitionand evolving alliances. The US and China havede-escalated trade tensions, but many underlying Economic risks outlook The January 2026 Chief Economists’ Outlook openson a cautiously brighter note than the past year.Although 53% of respondents still expect the globaloutlook to weaken in the year ahead, this is animprovement compared with the 72% who expectedthis outcome in September 2025. Yet even as therelative resilience of the global economy to shocksin the past year has brightened views of the year the form of inflated asset prices, increased levelsof public debt and high geopolitical uncertainty. Chief economists surveyed frequently listed thepotential of a bursting asset bubble as well as risingdebt pressures among the most worrying potentialmacroeconomic developments. Chapter 1 takes acloser look at both sets of risks. Chapter 2 explorestrade and investment in the global economy as well Looking to the year ahead, what are your expectations for the future condition of the global economy? Asset valuations Global markets in the past year have been driven bya concentrated US equity boom among AI leaders.Though still below the levels reached at the peak ofthe dot.com bubble, valuations of the top seven UStech firms (the “magnificent seven”, M7) have now 20% in November 2022.2Yet other assets also sawremarkable developments. While bitcoin and othercryptocurrencies slumped, gold has surged 60%this year on t