欧洲私人信贷监测（英）2025

Private CreditMonitor December 2025 Key Takeaways •Refinancings between the broadly syndicated loan and directlending markets began to even out in the second half of 2025–LCD data shows the totals running fairly close in Q3. In Q4,refinancing flows from both asset classes declined from the Q3 read.In fact, the volume of BSL facilities refinanced by direct lendersslumped to zero in Q4, from €1.5 billion in Q3 and a far-higher €4.2billion in Q2 (when direct lenders hosted a surge of refinancings fromborrowers amid volatile broader markets). •European direct lending broke records in 2025– Year-end datashows that the total estimated volume and deal flow in this market —at €41.4 billion and 160 transactions — surpassed 2024 levels. •M&A activity in 2025 was disappointing after a strong start tothe year– Acquisition-related funding was €22.1 billion for the year,down from €23.8 billion in 2024. •Refinancings and recaps drove activity levels– Such dealsaccounted for a chunky €18.3 billion in 2025, up from €14.2 billion in2024. Both refinancings and recaps are showing the highest volumesince LCD began tracking this data, with recaps also notching up arecord for share of transactions (by deal count). •Average spreads have tightened, and there has also been acompression relative to BSL– More than a third of buyouts werepriced below 500 bps in 2025, compared to none in 2023-2024, whileaverage spreads across all direct lending transactions are now 100bps tighter than in 2022. Meanwhile, the differential between averageLBO spreads in the BSL and direct lending markets has compressedby more than 100 bps since 2021. •LBO volume rose in Q4– But the year-over-year measure wasroughly the same as 2024. When comparing buyout activity betweenasset classes across 2025, meanwhile, there were 4x more LBOs inthe direct lending market than in the BSL market, based on thenumber of deals. •France hosted the highest share of European direct lendingloans for the first time since LCD’s records began, at 24% of thedeals tracked– French companies also dominated sponsored dealactivity in 2025, while half of all non-sponsored transactions camefrom UK-based companies, maintaining the UK as the busiestcountry for these deals.. •Lenders focused on the lower mid-market space in 2025– Theshare of deals with an estimated size of €100-349 million in 2025was 56% — the largest since LCD started tracking this data — while75% of deals were smaller than €500 million. Direct Lending Volume &Counts Direct lending deal activity picked up in the last quarter of the year… …with yearly activity and estimated volume officially beating the 2024 record Refinancing and recap activity has boosted overall volume as acquisition activity has slowed Sponsor-backed direct lending activity and estimated volume also picked up in Q4… Direct lending deal count and estimated volume, sponsor-backed borrowers (€B) …and outpaced full-year 2024 Direct lending deal count and estimated volume, sponsor-backed borrowers (€B) Sponsored recaps showed the highest quarterly level since LCD records began Estimated buyout volume rises slightly in the last quarter of the year 2025 LBO activity roughly the same as record 2024 levels Count and estimated volume of deals financing LBOs (€B) Spreads At 524 bps in 2025, average direct lending spreads have tightened by over 100 bps since 2022 The gap between broadly syndicated and direct lending spreads is narrowing New-issue spread of acquisition-related deals, PE-backed borrowers (bps) Over a third of buyouts have priced at under 500 bps in 2025, compared to none in 2023-2024 New-issue spread distribution of LBOs financed in the direct lending market The difference between average LBO spreads in the BSL and direct lending markets has also compressed by over 100 bps Spread of LBOs financed in BSL (all borrowers) vs direct lending market Broadly Syndicated vs.Direct Lending Market Direct lenders funded more than four times as many buyouts than in the broadly syndicated market in the fourth quarter of 2025 The estimated total volume of buyouts funding by direct lending is catching up to syndicated volume Last three months of the year featured a higher number of PE-backed transactions funded by direct lenders… …but PE-backed BSL volume still surpassed that of the direct lending market Direct lending estimated volume has grown steadily since LCD began tracking it, while BSL volume is more volatile Direct lending supports a record total of European leveraged finance deals since LCD started tracking the data Total number of deals financed via BSL, direct lending and HY bonds The volume of BSL facilities refinanced by direct lenders went to zero in the last three months of the year Market Characteristics Direct lenders in Q4 2025 funded the lowest number of non-sponsored transactions since Q3 2024 Share of European private credit deals by ownership type, by deal count The share of non-sponsored deals stays cl