美国私人信用监测（英）2025

US Private CreditMonitor December 2025 Key Takeaways •Direct lending volume dips in Q4—Even with November’s mega-deals, Q4 was theweakest quarter of 2025 by volume and deal count. LCD tracked $56.6 billion across 189deals in the last three months of the year. That’s the lowest volume in two years and thelowest transaction count since Q3 2023. November featured seven deals of at least $1 billion,the highest monthly count this year. These transactions alone accounted for 23% of Q4 •2026 outlook—Earnings calls from BDCs reporting third-quarter results indicate that M&Aactivity continues to strengthen, adding to improved market sentiment that began late in thesecond quarter. More stable financial markets and renewed sponsor confidence havesupported higher transaction volumes, while corporate management teams are increasingly •Give-and-take–About $34.1 billion of direct-lender loans were refinanced in the broadlysyndicated loan market in 2025, up 18% from 2024 and the highest total since LCD begantracking the data in 2022. Traffic in the opposite direction also increased at a similar pace,with direct lenders refinancing $36.9 billion of syndicated loans—the highest level in at leastfour years. Both markets captured sizeable wins, including several multibillion-dollar •Direct lending slows in 2025 but remains historically strong—For the full year, LCDestimates direct lending volume at $247 billion, down 11% from 2024. Deal activity was alsolower, at 842 transactions, down 16% from 2024. Even so, 2025 ranked as the second- •Late-year slowdown tempers buyout lending—Direct lenders issued an estimated $18.2billion in buyout financing in the fourth quarter, down from $25.1 billion in the third quarter andbelow the 2025 quarterly average of $20.3 billion. Deal activity fell more sharply, with just 46transactions—a low not seen since Q3 2023 and well below the 2025 average of 54. Despitethe late-year slowdown, full-year buyout financing volume was $81.4 billion, the highest level •Credit spreads remain compressed but steady—Fourth-quarter spreads held steady, witha median of S+475 unchanged from the third quarter. Looking at direct lending deals financingbuyouts, 48% of deals tracked by LCD in 2025 fell into the 450-499 bps range, up from 18%in 2024 and a negligible share in 2023 and 2022. Only 5% of LBOs carried spreads of S+650 •PC/MM CLO issuance sets a record but falls short of forecasts—Quarterly privatecredit/middle-market CLO issuance dropped to $10.3 billion, from $13.7 billion in the thirdquarter. But managers still set an annual record of $43.1 billion of deal pricings from privatecredit and direct lending issuers, topping the 2024 mark of $38.5 billion. Even so, the final Direct Lending Volume &Counts Even with November’s mega-deals, Q4 was the weakest quarter of 2025 by volume and deal count 2025 trailed 2024 by 11% in volume and 16% in deal count, yet still ranked as the second-busiest year in at least eight years In Q4, the number of PE-backed direct lending deals fell to the lowest mark since Q3 2023 Deal activity lagged 2024 by 24%, while volume was off by 16% Refinancings and recapitalizations remained an active part of the market Several jumbo deals propped up LBO volume in Q4, but deal count retreated to the lowest point since Q3 2023 Direct lending LBO volume reaches the highest point in at least eight years, although deal count still lags 2024 Healthcare and Technology sectors expanded their share of deal activity, while Services saw a pullback vs 2024 Spreads Fourth-quarter direct lending spreads held steady, with a median of S+475—unchanged from Q3 For LBO financings, roughly half the market was in the 450-499 bps range in 2025 The difference in BSL and direct lending spreads compressed amid competition for larger deals The LBO cost of debt contracted across both private and liquid credit markets Broadly Syndicated vs.Direct Lending Market LBO activity retreated across BSL and direct lending markets in Q4 In absolute dollars, sponsors secured more funding from direct lenders than BSL in Q4, thanks to a few mega-deals Weakness in the secondary syndicated loan market in Q4 curtailed opportunistic activity Overall BSL volume in the last three months slid Business DevelopmentCompanies (BDCs) BDC portfolios signal further spread compression 31% of unitranche facilities held by BDCs had spreads under S+500 as of Sept. 30, 2025, up from 17% at the end of 2024 23% of first-lien facilities carried spreads in the 450-499 bps range based on Q3 BDC filings, up from just 16% at the end of March Commercial Services and Software lead among BDC holdings by sector Direct Lending AUM,Private Debt Capital Raised, Direct lending AUM is steadily rising Private debt fundraising has fallen slightly year-over-year Private credit/MM CLO issuance pulled back in Q4 after a record Q3 BSL & Direct LendingTakeouts In a competitive tug-of-war for deal flow, direct lenders captured $36.9B