金融普惠、信贷繁荣与金融稳定风险（英）

Financial Inclusion, CreditBooms, and FinancialStability Risk Adolfo Barajas, Kensuke Sakamoto, and Rasool Zandvakil WP/26/8 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025JAN IMF Working Paper Institute for Capacity Development Financial Inclusion, Credit Booms, and Financial Stability RiskPrepared byAdolfo Barajas, Kensuke Sakamoto, and Rasool Zandvakil* Authorized for distribution by Selim ElekdagJanuary 2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Economic benefits of financial inclusion, meaning a broadening access of the population tofinancial services, have been studied extensively, but less is known about its potential effects on financialstability. We explore the complementarity between credit booms and episodes of rapid expansion of theborrower base, or “credit inclusion,” and find that the confluence of both helps to predict future financialdistress. Rapid credit inclusion on its own does not usually portend future instability, but it is much more likelyto do so when combined with a credit boom.These results can help to enhance the policymaker’s earlywarning toolbox. Financial Inclusion, Credit Booms,and Financial Stability Risk Prepared by Adolfo Barajas,Kensuke Sakamoto, and Rasool Zandvakil Contents I.Introduction..................................................................................................................................................6 A.Financial Inclusion..............................................................................................................................8B.Credit Boom........................................................................................................................................9C.Financial Stability..............................................................................................................................10D.Descriptive Statistics.........................................................................................................................11E.Stylized Facts....................................................................................................................................13 Financial Inclusion and Financial Stability.......................................................................................16 A.Identifying “Bad” Financial Inclusion.................................................................................................16B.Credit Booms Fueled by Credit Inclusion..........................................................................................22 Conclusion...........................................................................................................................................25 Annex 1. Credit Inclusion and Indicators from the WBES and Findex.........................................................26Annex 2. Construction of the Composite FI Measure...................................................................................27Annex 3. Robustness Checks......................................................................................................................273.1 Credit inclusion boomswith different thresholds.............................................................................273.2 Local Projections regression with continuous Regressor................................................................303.3 Alternative variables for FI measure................................................................................................323.4 Credit with a different threshold.......................................................................................................36Annex 4. Riskiness of Credit Allocation........................................................................................................38 References.........................................................................................................................................................43 FIGURES Figure 1. Japan: Illustration of Credit Boom Identification...................................................................................10Figure 2. Histograms of Changes in Credit Inclusion during vs outside of Booms.............................................13Figure 3. Changes in Credit Inclusion and Bad Booms......................................................................................14Figure 4. Impulse response functions from credit inclusion boom shocks..............................................