圣卢西亚（英）

ST. LUCIA 2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASEAND STAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year.In the context of the2025Article IVConsultation,thefollowing documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsiderationon a lapse-of-time basis,following discussions that ended onNovember14, 2025, with the officials ofSt. Luciaonthe Article IV Consultation.Basedon information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report wascompleted onDecember 15,2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMF staff. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith St. Lucia FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •On January 12, 2026, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation discussions with St. Lucia and considered andendorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting, on a lapse of time basis.1 •St. Lucia has staged a robust performance in recent years. The economy is projected togrow by 1.7 percent in 2025, following a strong expansion of 4.7 percent in 2024, withweaker tourism but strong construction activities, domestic demand and credit expansion.The economy is then expected to rebound in 2026 from tourism pickup. •Inflation was negative in 2024 from lower international food and energy prices, and it isprojected to increase to 0.8 percent in 2025. Despite improved net exports, the currentaccount deficit increased in 2024 from a widening net income deficit but is expected todecline over the medium term. Public finances are improving with primary balance surplusesrecorded for three consecutive years. •Nonetheless, long-standing challenges remain with income per capita diverging from theU.S. in the past decades, weak productivity, high public debt stock, and the ever-present riskof natural disasters. Washington, DC – January 14, 2026:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for St. Lucia.2The authorities have consentedto the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.3 Real GDP expanded by 4.7 percent in 2024, driven by robust tourism flows from the U.S. andconstruction activity. However, stayover tourist arrivals declined by 3.2 percent y/y duringJanuary-September 2025, underperforming regional peers, mainly driven by a decline in U.K.and Canadian tourists as temporary hotel closures and reduced airlift weighed in. In line witheconomic developments, the unemployment rate reached 10.8 percent in 2024, a historic low,but then inched up to 13.4 percent in Q22025. The headline CPI fell by 0.5 percent in 2024, primarily driven by easing international food and energy prices, and increased modestly by 0.5percent in H12025. Growth is expected to decline to 1.7 percent in 2025 with weaker tourism but strongconstruction activities, domestic demand, and credit expansion, and then rebound to 2.3percent in 2026 as tourism picks up. Over the medium term, growth will converge to itspotential rate of 1.5 percent as tourism flows stabilize and planned infrastructure andconstruction projects complete. Twelve-month moving-average inflation is projected to increase by 1.3 percentage points to0.8 percent in 2025 due to, amongst other factors, higher import costs from tariffs imposedelsewhere, and then gradually converge to 2 percent over the medium-term, consistent withthe expected trend among major trading partners. The current account deficit will graduallynarrow to 1.1 percent of GDP by 2030 as planned construction at hotels, airports and cruisefacilities is completed. The overall fiscal deficit excluding natural disaster costs is expected to narrow to 2.3 percent ofGDP by FY2030/31, with rising interest and wage bills partly offset by a decline in capitalexpenditure. Public debt, which also pencils in natural disaster costs, is projected to stabilize ataround 77 percent of GDP in the medium term. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. External risks include geopolitical tensions,escalating trade measures and prolonged policy uncertainty, which could dampen globaleconomic activity, potentially weaken tourism and FDI flows to St. Lucia and increase its importcosts. On the domestic front, weaker-than-expected performance in the tourism andconstruction sectors may further constrain growth. St. Lucia is al