前沿市场经济：前景、表现与展望

Promise, Performance, Tommy Chrimes, Philip Kenworthy,Jiwon Lee, Kate McKinnon,Takuma Tanaka, and Hamza Zahid Frontier MarketFrontier MarketFrontier MarketFrontier MarketEconomiesEconomiesEconomiesEconomiesPromise, Performance,and Prospects Tommy Chrimes, Philip Kenworthy,Jiwon Lee, Kate McKinnon,Takuma Tanaka, and Hamza Zahid The text of this advance edition is part of the reportGlobal Economic Prospects, January 2026(doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-2267-4). A PDF of the final book is available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ andhttp://documents.worldbank.org/, and print copies can be ordered at www.amazon.com. Please use the final version © 2026 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the dataincluded in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, orliability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. Theboundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges andimmunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2026. “Frontier Market Economies: Promise, Performance, andProspects.”Global Economic Prospects, Chapter 4. January. Washington, DC: World Bank. License: Creative Commons Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the soleresponsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within thework. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or partcontained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from suchinfringement rests solely with you. If you wish to reuse a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H StreetNW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover image:@ erhui1979/Getty Images. Used with the permission of Getty Images. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design:Adriana Maximiliano, World Bank Group. Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 3Contributions ........................................................................................................................................ 4Main findings ........................................................................................................................................ 7Characteristics of frontier markets............................................................................................................... 9Share of global population ................................................................................................................... 10Global economic footprint................................................................................................................... 10Financial integration and financial development ....................................................................................... 11Composition and volatility of capital inflows ....................................................................................... 11Limited financial market development ................................................................................................. 16Integration with the global financial cycle ....................................................................