2026年全球经济展望

Deloitte economists discuss the trends shaping the 2026 trajectories of over 25 countries Foreword from Deloitte’s chief global economist As anticipated in our last global economic outlook, elections around the world have driven notable policychanges that altered the trajectories of inflation, borrowing costs, currency values, and trade and capitalflows in 2025. One significant development was that the United States raised significant barriers to trade,disrupting supply chains and creating financial market volatility. Since then, it has struck trade deals withnumerous countries, reinstating some predictability in those trading relationships, albeit at higher costs.Restrictive US trade policy has also pushed other countries closer together, with numerous trade dealsbeing inked among non-US countries. In 2026, we expect to see the effects of these global policy shifts more clearly. Governments are adaptingto a new geopolitical reality and adjusting their fiscal and structural policy plans accordingly. This willlikely become more apparent in the new year. In addition, several countries are competing to remain atthe frontier of technological innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence, while others are trying not tofall further behind. Significant investments to develop this innovation ecosystem are likely to continue in2026. However, there is a risk that related spending has occurred too quickly and that a downwardadjustment could be on the horizon. In the following sections, economists from Deloitte’s firms offer their views on their respective countries’outlooks for the coming year. We hope that readers will find these outlooks interesting, insightful, andhelpful. Your feedback is most welcome, and our economists are available for more in-depth discussionson these matters. The Americas Argentina –Daniel ZagaandFederico Di Yenno Argentina will enter 2026 after two years of profound macroeconomic adjustment that reshaped its policyframework and restored a degree of stability to an economy long challenged by chronic imbalances. Theprogram launched in December 2023 combined fiscal consolidation, the elimination of central bankmonetary financing, and a managed exchange-rate regime that began with a sharp devaluation andcontinued with a gradual crawl to anchor expectations. These measures, reinforced by structural reforms and deregulation, delivered Argentina’s first primaryfiscal surplus in over a decade—1.8% of gross domestic product in 20241—and set the foundation forsustained disinflation. Inflation, which peaked near 300% in 2024, is projected to fall to 29.4% in 2025 and 13.7% in 2026,supported by tight monetary policy and credible nominal anchors. Monthly inflation stabilized around2% by late 2025, signaling progress toward price normalization and restoring confidence in the domesticcurrency. Economic prospects have improved markedly. After contractions in 2023 and 2024, GDP growth isexpected to rebound by 4% in 2025 and moderate to 3.5% in 2026 as the economy transitions fromstabilization to expansion. The recovery is led by consumption and construction—sectors revitalized bywage recovery and private investment—while the energy and mining sectors emerge as strategic growthdrivers. Oil and gas production is accelerating thanks to the Vaca Muerta shale, supported by new pipelines andliquefied natural gas export projects, positioning Argentina as a net energy exporter and generating an energy trade surplus after years of deficits.2Mining, particularly lithium and copper, is also set to benefitfrom the Large Investment Incentive Regime (or “RIGI”), which guarantees tax and foreign exchangestability for 30 years on projects exceeding US$200 million. Announced investments already surpassUS$30 billion across energy, mining, and infrastructure, signaling strong investor confidence in Argentina’s resource potential and regulatory framework. This is expected to boost investment further, asthese projects advance.3Global economic outlook 2026 | Deloitte Insights External accounts remain favorable, with a trade surplus projected at US$9 billion in 2025 and US$13billion in 2026, despite imports recovering alongside investment-led growth.4Net international reserves ofthe central bank, which stood at negative US$11 billion in late 2023, are expected to turn positive in2026, aided by International Monetary Fund disbursements and capital inflows under the RIGI. Thisimprovement in reserves, combined with a credible fiscal anchor, has strengthened Argentina’s externalposition and reduced vulnerability to external shocks. Financial conditions have also improved significantly. Country risk ratings fell from 2,500 basis points inlate 2023 to around 600 by end-2025, reflecting fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and progress inreserve accumulation. Argentina is expected to regain market access in 2026, contingent on sustainedfiscal surpluses and continued credibility of the macroeconomic framework. T