2026年全球经济展望

December 2025 Global:Betweenlightandshadow ChinaKey growth engines are losing steam, and external headwinds remain strong. Without substantial stimulusmeasures, the economy could further lose momentum.Oversupply and real estate slump cast a long shadow andcould take time to ease despite rescue efforts. Policy spaceexists, but debt concerns may constrain bolder actions. EuropeRecovery to continue with modest Japan U.S. growth in 2026 thanks to fiscal supportsand the expanding service sector.Stabilized tariff impacts amid 2%inflation may allow the ECB to pause itseasing cycle. Shows potential for recovery,supported by proactive fiscalstimulus and strong serviceactivities, yet weak manufacturingand slower global demand will capmomentum.BOJ signals a cautious normalizationpath for 2026 as inflation remainsabove the target of 2%. Moderate growth ahead amidmixed cyclical signals.Labor slowdown clouds outlook asmultiple factors limit furthermonetary easing.Converging economic risks—including political uncertainty, tariffeffects, and the AI boom—create acomplex dilemma for the Fed. Dimglobalgrowthprospects:TheIMFprojectsaslowdownin2026,withrisksskewedtothedownsideamidfadingfront-loading,prolongeduncertainty,andrisingprotectionism. Globalactivityisexpandingmodestly,ledbyservices,buttariffpressuresmayincreasinglyweighontradeandmanufacturingdespitepolicysupport. U.S.Tariffs:Mostcountriesseeaneffectivetariffhigherthanreciprocaltariffrates;highertariffswilllikelydampen2026economicgrowthandaffectglobalsupplychains. Althoughthe IEEPA-based universal and reciprocal tariffs face legal challenges,Trumpadministrationcanstillresorttoothertools,suchassector-specifictariffsunderSection232. Reciprocaltariffs,imposedundertheInternationalEmergencyEconomicPowersAct(IEEPA),areunderlegaldispute.OnAugust29,theU.S.FederalCircuitupheldtheCourtofInternationalTrade’srulingthattheTrumpadministration’sreciprocaltariffswereunconstitutional.Nonetheless,reciprocaltariffsremaintemporarilyineffect,withtheSupremeCourtgrantingafast-trackreviewstartinginearlyNovemberandafinalrulingexpectedbymid-2026.Evenifstruckdown,theTrumpadministrationcanstillresorttoothertools,suchasSections201,301,and232.Particularly,section232hasalreadybeenimplementedtoimposeindustry-specifictariffs,currently25%onautosandparts,and50%onsteel,aluminum,andcopper,withpotentialexpansiontootherproducts.Assuch,U.S.tariffpressuresareexpectedtopersistintheforeseeablefuture. Alternatives Tools to Reciprocal Tariffs U.S.:Moderategrowthaheadamidmixedpolicyandcyclicalsignals;laborslowdowncloudsoutlookasmultiplefactorslimitfurtherFedeasing. TheU.S.economyisexpectedtogrowmoderatelyat2.1%in2026,comparedto2.0%in2025.Servicesactivity,fiscalexpansion,andrecentratecutsshouldcontinuetosupportgrowth.However,overallmomentumwillbetemperedbyaweakeninglabormarketandsofterwagegains.Acontinuedcontractioninmanufacturingactivityandafurtherweaknessinthepropertysectorcouldfurthererodecyclicaltailwinds.Signsofabroaderslowdown–amplifiedbytheimpactoftariffpoliciesandrisksofarenewedgovernmentshutdown–pointtoagradualpolicyeasingahead,thoughstickyinflationmaylimittheFed’sabilitytoeasemonetarypolicy. Convergingeconomic risks—including political uncertainty,tariff effects,and the AIboom—createacomplexdilemmaforthecentralbank. Krungsri Research’s view Political Uncertainty:The 43-day government shutdown was merely postponed until January 30th, meaningsustained political uncertainty will likely drag on business investment and job creation.Tariff policiesare anticipated to be a net drag on the economy. They will fuel cost-push inflation (eroding purchasing power) and raise manufacturer input costs (squeezing profit margins), risking job losses in export and supply-chainsectors. Legal challenges to reciprocal tariffs and other tariffs could increase uncertainty and weigh on sentiment. AI Correction Risk:The AI boom poses a medium-to-high risk of a deep market correction due to high concentrationand aggressive growth expectations. However, the risk of a systemic crisis is low as leading companies are insulatedby robust cash flow and durable assets (unlike the leverage risk of the Dot-Com era). Overall Economic Headwinds:Despite some expansion in business investment, the overall outlook is weighed downby weak consumer spending, sluggish global trade, slowing job growth, and sticky inflation.Policy Dilemma:With most potential Fed chair candidates likely favoring pro-growth policy, we expect the Fed funds rate to decline modestly to 3.25%–3.50% in 2026. The outlook is highly uncertain: signs of a slowdown support cuts,but sticky inflation, boosted by tariffs and the AI boom, limits the Fed’s ability to ease, creating a complex dilemma. Eurozone:Recoverytocontinuewithmodestgrowthin2026thankstofiscalsupportsandexpandingservicesector. Theeurozoneeconomicrecoveryisprojectedtocontinuein2026,albeitslowly,withGDPgrowthprojectedat1.1%,comparedto1.2%in2025,supportedbyimprovingperformanceinmajo