固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 BNKEA T2s were 3-4bps wider this morning, while the rest of Asian IG spacewas largely unchanged.NOMURA 7 Perp edged 0.3pt higher.VLLPM29/CHIYBK 32 rose 0.9-1.0pt. EHICAR 26/NUFAU 30/SOFTBK 31 were 0.8- Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk FRESHK:Initiate buy on the new FRESHK 5.25 01/13/29 and maintain buyon FRESHK 26-28s. FRESHKs were unchanged this morning. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:In mild reflation. CMBI expects CPI and PPI to reflate from0.1% and-2.6% in2025 to 0.7% and-0.5% in 2026. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Last Friday,the new KHFC Float 29 and KHFC 3.875 31 were largelyunchanged from ROat SOFR+49 and CT5+36, respectively. The newTOPTB 6.1 Perp was up by 0.2-0.4pt during the day from RO at 99.967, astactical participants were selling while PBs buying. The new SJMHOL 31 was 0.4pt lower from RO at par. See our comments on TOPTB and SJMHOL on8 Jan’25.The new SOCGEN7.125 Perp hovered around RO at par for mostof the day, before edging 0.1pt higher at Asia close. The existing SOCGEN8.5 Perp was up by 0.8pt. The rest of Yankee AT1s were largely unchangedamid decent two-way flows where retail/PB clients bought from institutionalsellers. We saw better buying on the recent new issues CLFCAP/EBIUH/FABUH 31s, which closed 2-5bps tighter. The MEITUA curve was underpressure and leaked 2-3bps wider, and the rest of TMT bonds were 1-2bpstighter. LIHHK 26 dropped 0.8pt. VDNWDL 9 Perp was down by 0.7pt.NWDEVL Perps were 0.1-0.5pt higher, while NWDEVL 27-31s were 0.1pt Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.65%), Dow (+0.48%) and Nasdaq (+0.81%) were higher on last Friday. US Dec’25 nonfarmpayroll was +50k, lower than the market expectation of +66k. US Dec’25 unemployment rate was 4.4%, lowerthan the market expectation of 4.5%. 2/5 year USTyield was higher on last Friday while 10/30 year yield was Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 FRESHK:Initiate buy on the new FRESHK 5.25 01/13/29 and maintain buy onFRESHK 26-28s Last week, Far East Horizon (FEH) issued 3yr USD bond (S&P: BBB-). The issue size is USD400mn on anorder book of over USD2.5bn. The net proceeds of the new FRESHK 5.25 01/13/29 will be used for workingcapital and general corporatepurposes, and maybe on-lent to subsidiaries by way of intercompany loan subjectto relevant PRC regulatory approval. At 100.1, the new FRESHK 5.25 01/13/29 is trading at Z+182bps/YTM of We initiate buy on the new FRESHK 5.25 01/13/29, and maintainbuy on FRESHK 26-28s. In our view,FRESHKs offer more attractive risk-return profiles than other leasing peers such as BOCAVI 26-29s (YTM of4.0-4.2%). The new FRESHK 5.25 01/13/29 also provides yield pick-up of c70bps over the new BOCAVI 4.37501/12/33 issued last week with 4 year shorter in tenor. We like FEH’s more diversified operations comparedwith those of other Chinese commercial leasing peers. We expect FEH’s operating performance and asset China Economy: In mild reflation China’s deflationary pressure continued to ease in end-2025. CPI edgedup driven by food and gold jewelleryprices. Consumer goods rebounded as holiday approaches while service price remained flat. Contraction of expect mild price reflation in the short term, driven by anti-involution campaign and global commodities rally,whichshould improve corporate profitability and support capital market performance.However,thesustainability of price reflation over the medium and long term remains uncertain. Price gains have beenconcentrated in the upstream sectors, while end-demand remains weak. Chinese policymakers may require Food price drove the rebound of CPI.China’s CPI edged up to 0.8% YoY in Dec from 0.7% in Nov, in linewith market expectation. In sequential terms, CPI recovered to 0.2% in Dec from-0.1% in Nov. Food priceremained the major driver as its YoY growth rose to 1.1% in Dec, boosting headline CPI by 0.2pp. Vegetableprice YoY growth climbed to 18.2%, while its MoM pace slowed from 0.5% in Nov to 0.3% in Dec. Pork pricesaw another drop at-1.7% MoM in Dec, as live hog inventory remained abundant. Vehicle fuel price dropped Core CPI remained elevated.Core inflation stayed flat at 1.2% YoY in Dec, while its MoM rose 0.2%. Durablegoods saw notable price reflation as Chinese New Year is approaching. Home equipment, telecom equipmentand vehicles rose 1.4%, 3% and 0.1% MoM respectively in Dec. According to NBS, gold jewellery further roseto 68.5% YoY in Dec from 58.4%, contributing at least0.5pp to core inflation. Service price remained flat at 0%MoM in Dec, with its YoY growth moderated to 0.6% in Dec from 0.7%. Education, telecom and express services PPI sustained its recovery momentum.The YoY contraction of PPI edged up to-1.9% in Dec from-2.2% inNov, beating market expectations at-2%.The MoM growth increased for the third month at 0.3% driven byupper stream sectors inclu