设计能够促进投资的定价框架

Turning policy ambitioninto viable projects in theMiddle East and beyond Managementsummary Tariff frameworks for utility services in the Middle East are designed to balanceaffordability for consumers with financial viability for operators and attractivenessfor investors. Achieving this balance is essential for delivering capital-intensive networkssuch as electricity, water and gas among other sectors – assets that underpin publicwelfare and competitiveness. For many years, tariff setting relied on ad hoc, project-specific negotiations betweenauthorities and utility operators. The result was volatility and limited transparency.Regulators have since moved toward rules-based frameworks that provide greaterpredictability and stability. These include cost-of-service regulation, incentive-basedmodels such as CPI-X and RAB and performance- or output-based regulation. Structured tariff models such as these are particularly effective in the MiddleEast, where state-led sectors and large-scale infrastructure investment is essential.Affordability is best protected through subsidies or direct support for low-incomeconsumers rather than cross-subsidies. Even where data gaps persist, regulators canmaintain confidence through periodic reviews and adjustments. When it comes to implementation, design is crucial. Transparent rules for capitalinvestment and asset entry help translate policy into bankable projects. Financialparameters such as the weighted average cost of capital must balance investor returnswith consumer affordability. Mechanisms that manage demand uncertainty and early-years risk, such as staged asset entry into RAB and defined reopeners, are critical foremerging sectors where utilization remains uncertain. Mature sectors like electricity, water and gas benefit from standardized frameworks,while newer areas such as carbon capture and district cooling need greater flexibilityand risk-sharing. By embedding scenario analysis and sensitivity testing in tariff reviews,regulators can anticipate delays or demand shocks and adjust proactively. Looking ahead, it is important that frameworks remain closely aligned with policy. Assectors mature, tariff models should evolve. Roland Berger's holistic approach connectscustomer tariffs and operator revenues in a coherent framework, stress-tested withstakeholders to ensure fiscal discipline and in so doing turns tariffs into an effectiveinstrument for moving infrastructure from concept to reality. Contents The tariff challenge Tariff design for utility services across the Middle East has long grappled with a coretension: keeping services affordable for consumers while ensuring they remain financiallyviable for operators and attractive to investors. Utilities deliver essential services such aselectricity, water and gas among other sectors, which shape public welfare andcompetitiveness, making affordability a political and social priority. At the same time,these services are capital-intensive and require predictable returns to justify upfrontfinancing and continued private participation. If tariffs are set too low, utilities struggle tomaintain quality or expand networks; if set too high, public resistance and underutilizationcan follow. The regulatory task is clear: recover costs, drive productivity and protectvulnerable customers. This is particularly important in emerging markets whereinfrastructure gaps are large and budgets are often constrained. Historically, tariff setting often relied on simple project-by-project discounted cashflowcalculations. Without a standardized framework, each tariff became a negotiation shapedby case-specific assumptions, with limited attention to cost allocation across customersegments or broader policy goals. This ad hoc approach masked cross-subsidies andproduced tariff volatility as cost estimates or financing conditions shifted. The absence ofclear, rules-based cost-recovery mechanisms introduced regulatory risk that raisedcapital costs and weakened investor appetite. These shortcomings created a trust gap between consumers, operators andregulators. Consumers , lacking transparency on cost structures and efficiencystandards, often viewed price increases as unfair, especially when not paired withservice improvements. Operators faced uncertain recognition and timing of prudentcapital expenditures in the tariff base, delaying recovery and complicating fundraising.Incentives fell out of alignment: Users questioned value, and investors doubted timelyand fair returns. The result was slower infrastructure build-out and lower confidence inregulatory frameworks. Today, the urgency for effective tariff frameworks is even greater. Across the MiddleEast, governments face accelerating infrastructure and service demands driven by rapideconomic diversification, industrial expansion and population growth. Meeting this surgerequires unprecedented levels of investment and delivery capacity. To mobilize thenecessary capital and ensure projects ke