2026年锂价展望：维持乐观
Lithium Carbonate Annual Outlook: Remains Positive2026年锂价展望：维持乐观 杨飞Yang Fei从业资格号Qualification No：F03108013投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0021455沈照明Shen Zhaoming从业资格号Qualification No：F3074367投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0015479桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 More English Reports on CITIC FuturesWebsite：https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要Abstract In 2026, the lithium carbonate market is expected to facehigh demand growth alongsideexpectations of peak capacity, withspeculative demand potentially driving price hikes and elevatedvolatility. We forecast prices to fluctuate betweenRMB 80,000 and 180,000 per ton. Policy:The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to guide rapid growth in domestic energy storagedemand, while China'sconsumption incentivepolicies continue to provide support. Supply:2026 is projected to be the final commissioning peak of this cycle. Global lithiumresource supply is forecast to grow by30% to 2.14 million tons LCE, with new capacity primarilyconcentrated in China and Africa. Demand:Global demand is expected to grow by26% to 2.02 million tons LCE. While thegrowth rate of New Energy Vehiclesmay soften, the shift toward a higher proportion of Battery ElectricVehiclesand the growth of high-capacity commercial vehicles remain clear. Meanwhile, energystorage installations in China, Europe, and the Middle East continue to gain momentum. Market Balance:We anticipate aslight surplusin 2026.After2027, the lack of new projectsand an optimistic outlook for energy storage may stir speculative demand, shifting the priceupward.Withgrowth in both supply and demand, the market should prepare forintense price volatility. Risks:Supplyexceeding expectations; weaker-than-expected demand; policy changes. 2026年碳酸锂面临需求高增、产能见顶预期，投机需求或导致价格抬升和高波动，预计锂价运行于8-18万元/吨之间。政策端，十五五规划指引国内储能需求高速增长，中国以旧换新持续。供应端，预计2026年迎来本轮周期最后投产高峰，全球锂资源供应增长30%至214.0万吨LCE，主要集中在中国和非洲。需求端，预计2026年全球需求增长26%至202.2万吨LCE，其中新能源车增速走弱，但纯电车比例提升和高带电量商用车的增长趋势依旧明确；中国、欧洲、中东等地储能装机需求持续发力。综合来看，预计2026年将维持小幅过剩且过剩量扩大。但是，2027年之后新项目不足、储能预期乐观，市场投机需求或将提升，将带动价格中枢上移。供需双增背景下，价格将面临剧烈波动。 风险因素：供应弹性超预期；需求不及预期；政策变动 Content目录 1. Review of the 2025 Lithium Market..............................................................................32. Policy Impacts................................................................................................................42.1 China's New Energy Vehicle Trade-In Policy.............................................................................42.2 15th Five-Year Plan Guides Long-Term Development for Energy Storage................................42.3 IRA Repeal Dampens U.S. EV and Energy Storage Growth.....................................................52.4 EU EV-Related Policies.............................................................................................................53. Global Lithium Supply...................................................................................................63.1 Global Lithium Supply...............................................................................................................63.2 China Lithium Salt Supply.........................................................................................................94. Slowing EV Momentum, Energy Storage Emerges as a New Demand Driver........124.1 Electric Vehicle Sales Continue to Grow.................................................................................124.2 Grid-Side Energy Storage Installations Accelerated................................................................144.3 Steady Growth in Consumer Battery Demand.........................................................................164.4 Changes in Demand Structure for Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide.........................185. Balance.........................................................................................................................201.行情回顾........................................................................................................................222.政策影响........................................................................................................................242.1中国：以旧换新......................................................................................................................242.2美国：IRA法案......................................................................................................................252.3欧盟：减排延期......................................................................................................................253.全球锂供应....................................................................................................................253.1全球锂矿供应..........................................................................................................................253.2中国锂盐供应..........................................................................................................................284.储能需求旺盛..................................
