中国软件（港股/A股）2026前瞻：通过AI、信创、海外扩张释放增长

AI monetization set to accelerate; focus on quality names 09 January 2026 Shareprices of software companies under our coverage went up by 16% on average in2025, compared to +23% for MSCI China Index. On a quarterly basis, share prices ofsoftware companies under our coverage went up by 35% on average in 9M25 (similar tothe MSCI China Index), while underperforming in 4Q25 amid a pullback in AI-themedinvestments, driven by broader macroeconomic volatility. Looking into 2026E, we arecautiously optimistic on software demand outlook, as the accelerated AI monetizationand software import substitution trend will be coupled with soft demand in variousverticals. Overall, we forecast China software and IT services industry to post 12% YoYrevenue growth in 2026E (vs. 13% YoY in 2025E). Software names under our coverage EquityChina Daley Li, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 5365daley.li2@bofa.com Harry Zhuang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7998 are expected to have revenue growth acceleration at 14% YoY on average in 2026E (vs. Exhibit1:Werevise POs of16 softwareand cloudnames under our coveragePOchanges FurtherOPM improvement; undemanding sector valuation We expectwell-managed employee size expansion across our China software coveragein 2026E after a 5% YoY decline in the total number of employees in 2025, mainly dueto 1) enhanced operating efficiency boosted by AI; and 2) implementation of stringentcost-control measures. In 2026, we expect the total employee count of Chinese softwarecompanies under our coverage to be largely flat YoY (merely up 1% YoY on average),leading to 4.6ppts OPM improvement on average (+7.1ppts in 2025E). Meanwhile, the Preferstocks with high growth visibility We reiterate Buy onKingdee, given 1) resilient top-line growth supported by risingsubscription revenue and AI monetization; and 2) sustained profitability improvementafter the breakeven in FY25E. We likeMeitufor its strong earnings growth ahead on 1)rising paying ratio leveraging AI; and 2) rapid expansion of productivity tools, despitemarket concerns on large model competition. We upgradeKingsoft Officeto Buy fromNeutral given better growth outlook driven by WPS 365 (ToB), WPS to-C businessgrowth recovery with AI upsides in domestic market plus strong growth in overseas; and Investment themes and relatedstock preferences(1)AI application and monetization (Kingdee, Meitu,andKingsoft Office) (2)Software import substitution (Xinchuang)(Kingdee, Kingsoft Office) >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 36 to 38. Analyst Certification on page 34. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 29. 2025 recap Share prices of the Chinese software companies under our coverage rose by 35% in thefirst nine months of 2025, similar to MSCI China Index’s performance, while the stocksunderperformed in 4Q25 (down 13% on average, vs. down 9% of MSCI China Index) dueto de-rating of AI-themed stocks in general. Overall, share prices of Chinese softwarenames under our coverage went up by 16% on average in 2025, compared to MSCI Undemanding sector valuation despite solid share price performance in 2025 Despite solid share price performance in 2025, China’s software companies we covercurrently trade at 5.4x 12-month forward P/S (1SD below the historical average), whichlooks undemanding against a backdrop of 13% revenue CAGR over FY25-27E, in ourview. At a single-stock level, all software companies under our coverage (16 names) are 2026: a year of solid growth The China software & IT services sector growth has been largely in line with the macroeconomy. The correlation between revenue growth of China’s software & IT servicesindustry and China’s GDP growth was c.76% from 2007 to 9M25. We divide thespending cycle of China’s software & IT services into three stages: 1) Booming (2007-12; 28% CAGR), 2) transition (2013-19, 17% CAGR), and 3) new era (2020 onwards), by We expect China software & IT services sector revenue growth to be solid at 12% YoY in 2026E (vs. c.13% YoY in 2025E), as the first year of the 15thFifth-Year Plan,underpinned by (1) AI monetization, and (2) software import substitution. Exhibit7:We divide China software & IT services sector growth into three stages from 2007 and we expect sector growth to be 12% YoYin 2026EThree stages of China software & IT services industry revenue growth Assessin