全球储能：2026年展望。电力存储将继续推动电池市场上涨

Global Energy Storage: 2026 Outlook. Power storage set tocontinue to drive the battery rally 2025 was an incredible year for the energy storage industry with ESS leading thecharge in a broad based equity rally.ESS demand surged by +85% and lithium pricesrecovered from US$8k/ton LCE to US$13k, making both segments standout performers.ESS leaders such as Sungrow (+137%) posted extraordinary gains, while lithium producerssuch as Ganfeng (NC) (+160%) and Tianqi (+68%) also rallied strongly. Among battery cellmakers, CATL rose +42%, followed by LGES (+6%) and SDI (+12%). Total battery demand is set to grow around 32% y-o-y to 2.4TWh in 2026 withESS leading the way.In 2025, demand growth of +48% y-o-y far exceeded our initial expectation of +30%, driven by exceptional upside from ESS and commercial vehicle (CV)demand (+94% vs. +35% expected). This year’s growth reflects slower EV sales (+14%)and greater contributions from ESS (+50%) and electric trucking (+67%), underscoring theaccelerating adoption of electrification across multiple segments. We expect higher prices (+10%) across the global battery value chain which willincrease top line growth.Key factors include: 1) capacity expansion lagging demand,resulting in higher utilization rates across the supply chain; 2) limited capex growth;and 3) price recovery in leading indicators such as LiPF6, lithium, and electrolytes.Persistent supply tightness should support an ASP recovery without undermining EV or ESSeconomics, translating into stronger revenue growth and profitability. China battery makers should continue to enjoy faster growth than Korean peersdriven by ESS and EV dynamics.Market share dynamics have remained broadly stable, with Chinese Tier-2 cell makers gaining modestly while Korean peers lost ground. CATLcontinues to lead with 36% share (-0.3ppt), followed by BYD (18%, +0.2ppt), LGES (11%,-1.2ppt), and SDI (3%, -0.5ppt). While China’s EV demand will likely slow, growth shouldoutpace the US and in Europe Chinese companies should continue to gain share. In ESSChina demand should continue to outpace RoW despite the surge of growth in 2025. In technology, we see potential breakthroughs in sodium-ion and solid statebatteries in 2026.In 2026 advances in energy density (>400 Wh/kg), charging speed(>1.5 km/s), and battery size (+4%) will enhance range and reduce charging times. Massproduction of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs) in China is expected in 2027, with Tier-2players accelerating commercialization from 2026. Sodium-ion batteries, which lostmomentum during the lithium price slump, have seen huge cost reductions >30% in 2025,making them increasingly attractive for ESS and EV applications. Our top picks for 2026 are CATL (A-share), Sungrow, and Tianqi Lithium.We believethe 30% battery demand growth and stable unit profitability for industry leaders are notfully priced in, with CATL (A) trading at 20x NTM P/E. We initiate CATL (H) at Market Performwith a HKD530 target and Market-perform rating. We rate Sungrow Outperform on robustESS growth and successful overseas expansion. Tianqi is also rated Outperform ahead ofour higher 2026 lithium price outlook. We maintain Market Perform on LGES, LG Chem, andSDI, and Underperform on Ecopro and Posco Future M amid U.S. EV slowdown. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS 2025 was an extraordinary year for energy storage companies with significant out-performance across the value chain. WhileEV sales were robust, the upside surprise was the strength in ESS. We think energy storage companies can continue to do wellin 2026, although not the same level of gains as last year given higher expectations. While growth will likely slow this year to32%, it should still exceed current forecasts which are in the high teens to high twenties. We think the key demand driver will beanother strong year for ESS and battery demand for heavy-duty trucks and other commercial vehicles. While we still anticipaterobust EV demand growth (c. 14%), slower growth in China is a key risk to watch given the stronger than expected slowdownin 2025. Regionally, we expect China demand to continue to outgrow RoW which makes us relatively more positive on Chineseplayers relative to Korean companies. One of the key differences between this year and the past few years will be rising prices,which will boost revenue growth and working capital values. Stronger utilization will also help with margins. We also expecttechnology surprises as batteries get better. We think 2026 could be a breakthrough year for Na-ion batteries given remarkablecost declines and solid state which will see the start of commercial production, albeit at a small scale. We are generally aboveconsensus for companies in the sector and expect high 20% growth from industry leader CATL. We remain Outperform onCATL(A), Sungrow and Tianqi. We maintain Market Perform on LGES, LG Chem, and SDI, and Underperform on Ecopro andPosco Future M amid U.S. EV slowdown. We also initi