全球储能：储能需求推动电池需求飙升

Global Energy Storage: ESS demand drives battery demand into The global energy storage sector delivered a strong third quarter, with total demandrising 46% y-o-y though ASP declined by 6%.In 3Q25, total battery demand grewby 46% y-o-y in 3Q25 to 466GWh (+50% y-o-y to 1209GWh in 9M25). ESS batteries+85% y-o-y, contributing nearly 50% of the incremental battery demand, surpassing EVsin growth contribution. We project battery demand to grow 45% to 1,757GWh for full-year 2025, with 4Q25 demand expected at 548GWh, up 35% y-o-y. Despite lithium prices Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Although EV battery installations grew 20-30%, LGES and SDI experiencedcontinued revenue decline.CATL’s EV battery installations in 3Q25 increased 17% y-o-y, but its market share slipped to 32.2% (33.8% in 9M25). In China, this was mainly due to therising popularity of EV models powered by other battery suppliers, while CATL’s wallet shareamong its top 10 customers remained stable except for NIO and Chery. Outside China,CATL faced challenges primarily in the US market. Korean battery cell makers performed Profit margins for battery cell manufacturers remained resilient, except for SDIwhere profitability continued to deteriorate.Quarterly data shows Chinese battery cellmakers 3Q unit profit remained stable, US$14/kWh for CATL and US$3-4/kWh for Chinesetier-2. Within our coverage, we estimate that CATL maintained its battery operating profitat US$14/kWh in 2025, followed by LGES (US$11/kWh and $2/kWh excluding IRA taxcredits) and Samsung SDI (US$-20/kWh and US$-24/kWh if excluding IRA tax credits). CATL is the only company to deliver a material (40%) increase in capex for 2025which bodes well for future expansion.In contrast, SDI and LGES will record a 30%capex reduction this year while rapidly shifting EV battery capacity toward ESS, aiming forapproximately 30GWh capacity in the US by end-2026. For SDI, this would represent over50% of capacity, versus 15% for LGES. CATL’s battery plants in Hungary are progressing on We have raised target prices across companies in the global energy storage sectorto reflect the growth potential in ESS demand.Our top pick remains CATL, whose 18xP/E based on 2027 earnings does not yet fully capture the expected 40-50% growth inbattery demand this year and its ability to maintain stable unit profits. Within the Koreanbattery value chain, although the US ESS outlook is promising, near-term fundamentalsare challenging due to weak EV demand in the US, and it remains uncertain how quickly BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE PRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Battery and battery value chain stocks are rallying globally. The reason is not down to electric vehicles (although EV demandhas been good this year), but instead it is the surge in demand for batteries for energy storage. In China, Energy Storage System(ESS) demand has doubled as market based pricing and lower battery costs have made the economics of ESS more attractive.In the US, ESS batteries have become a potential solution to power supply bottlenecks as US electricity demand accelerateson the build out of data centers. In Europe the increase of renewables in the grid is also driving demand for batteries to supportgrid stability. We think that global battery demand will increase by 45% this year, compared to 30% at the start of the year.Looking into 2026, there is every reason to think that demand will continue to be strong for ESS, although this could be offsetby slower EV demand growth in the US and China. Longer term, we think battery demand has a long way to grow. In terms ofstocks, we continue to like CATL, although there are other opportunities further upstream in the value chain in China. While the VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS Battery demand is growing more quickly than anyone expected this year Global Energy Storage: Increasing CATL price target toCNY420 on blockbuster year for ESS. The reason is down to ESS demand which is doubling in China and increasing by 50-60%in Europe and the US. Given that most of the ESS demand is for Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries, a technology dominatedby China, Chinese companies are benefiting the most. Across the value chain we see rising demand, rising prices and risinglevels of utilization which will be positive for sequential margins improvement in the quarters ahead. While CATL the industryleader has been one of the key beneficiaries, greater returns have been made in some of the higher beta cyclical companies This note reviews the 3Q25 results of our covered companies. We have raised target prices across companies in the globalenergy storage sector to reflect the growth potential in ESS demand. Our top pick remains CATL, whose 20x P/E based on2026 earnings does not yet fully capture the expected 40-50% growth in batter