2026年全球电力展望：AI用电增长成为新亮点
Global Electricity Outlook:AIPowerNeedGrowsFast2026年全球电力展望：AI用电增长成为新亮点 张默涵Zhang Mohan从业资格号Qualification No：F03097187投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0020317桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Abstract摘要 In 2026, trendsin electricity prices may diverge between China, the US, and Europe,highlighting global power investment opportunities. 1) Chinese Power Market: In 2025, the structural oversupply of power, the decline in thecentral fuel cost, and the acceleration of marketization have driven domestic electricity pricesdownward.Looking ahead to 2026, overall electricity price levels may stabilize. The degree ofelectricity price marketization will further increase,and the whole power market will be guided by thecore idea of "stable electricity prices and stable coal prices". An upward shift in fuel costs will supportthe bottom of energy prices, while the entry of new energy sources will intensify the fluctuation ofpeak and off-peak spot electricity prices, thereby boosting the returns on energy storage and otherregulatingpower sources. 2) European Power Market: Electricity demand growth in Europe is sluggish, but weatherfluctuations bring uncertainty.It is expected that the European economy will still be under pressurein 2026, and the central gas price will continue to face downward pressure. Electricity prices mayoscillate downward, with the main uncertainties stemming from weather conditions. 3) U.S. Power Market: AI development exacerbates the tight balance between electricitysupply and demand, leading to continued increases in electricity prices.It is expected that in2026, the tight balance in US power will remain difficult to resolve quickly. With the slowing growth innatural gas supply, high exports, and inventory drawdowns, the central gas price is likely to continuerising, which may furtherdrive-upUS electricity prices. Risks:Overseas trade policies risks;Sales fell short of expectations;Abnormal changes inatmospheric circulation;Alternations of extreme weather and disruption from unexpected events,sudden changes in energy policies, escalation of geopolitical crises, global economic recessionexceeding expectations, and reduced willingness to reduce emissions. 2026年中美欧电价趋势或分化，关注全球电力投资机会。 （1）中国电力：2025年，电力供需结构性宽松、燃料成本中枢下降、市场化进展加快，推动电价下降。2026年电价水平或趋稳健，市场化程度将进一步提高。“稳电价、稳煤价”奠定基调，燃料成本上移支撑电价底部。新能源入市将加剧现货电价峰谷价差波动，推升储能和其他调节电源的收益率。 （2）欧洲电力：欧洲用电需求增长迟缓，但天气波动带来不确定性。预计2026年欧洲经济仍将承压，且气价面临下行压力，电力价格或震荡下行，不确定性主要在天气。 （3）美国电力：AI发展新增电力需求，美国电力紧平衡仍难以快速化解，预计2026年美国天然气价格在供应增长放缓、出口高企、去库格局下，气价中枢有望继续上升，美国电价或将继续走高。 风险因素：贸易政策风险；销售不及预期；大气环流变化异常；极端天气转换等 RelatedReports相关报告: 20251126 China Futures Annual Outlook中国期货2026年度展望20251210 Policy Readings on the Politburo Meeting in December 2025年12月政治局会议联合点评20251030 Policy Readings on the “15th Five-Year Plan” “十五五”规划建议联合点评20250723 Anti-Involution Policy Reading and Influence on Futures Prices “反内卷”政策对期货价格影响20251215 New Energy Vehicle Annual Outlook 2026年全球新能源车销量展望20251212 Solar PV Industry Annual Outlook 2026年光伏年度展望20250716 China Electricity Price Mid-year Outlook中国电价半年度展望 *Click on the hyperlink of report titles to read historical reports Content目录 1. Chinese Power Market: Electricity reforms are accelerating, with electricity pricesexpected to stabilize by 2026...............................................................................................61.1Power Supply: Wind and solar power are increasingly replacing hydropower and thermal power,while coal-fired power generation is gradually shifting towards becoming a system-regulating powersource.......................................................................................................................................................................61.2Power Demand: Electricity consumption increased quarter by quarter, with distinct growth trendsbetween old and new drivers................................................................................................................................91.3Power Market: Full coverage of the spot market, entry of new energy sources, and grid integrationframework established.........................................................................................................................................111.4Price Outlook: Supported by energy prices, overall electricity price levels may remain stable....12 2. European Power Market: High proportion of renewable energy amplifies the impactof weather fluctuations; electricity prices may weaken in 2026....................................14 2.1Power Supply: Renewable energy exceeds half of the total power generation; grid resilience needsimprovement..........................................................................................................................................................14 3. U.S. Power Market: AI development exacerbates electricity supply and demandtensions; electricity price
