贵金属月报：地缘政治风险升级，贵金属热度难降

地缘政治风险升级，贵金属热度难降 核心观点及策略 ⚫委内瑞拉总统马杜罗突然被捕，近期地缘政治风险再度升级，这将促使多国重新审视资产安全与主权问题，也预示了各国对资源的争夺会更加激烈，而作为战略性资源的贵金属的重要性更加凸显。政局的动荡将加快各国“去美元化”以及增持黄金，黄金的货币属性正在回归，贵金属长期上涨的逻辑依然坚实。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号 李婷从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692 ⚫贵金属在持续飙升屡创新高之后正在遭受国内外交易所监管持续加码的考验，预计短期预贵金属价格波动将加剧。 高慧从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫目前铂钯价格相对于金银都处于低位，再加上美国可能对铂钯征收高额关税的预期在发酵，我们中长期看好铂和钯的补涨行情，可趁调整逢低做多。 王工建从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫风险因素：地缘政治风险持续升级 何天从业资格号：F03120615投资咨询号：Z0022965 目录 一、贵金属行情回顾.....................................................................................................................4二、宏观分析.................................................................................................................................51、地缘政治风险升级，全球政局动荡将加剧..............................52、非农就业数据尚可，降息预期推迟...................................6三、贵金属市场分析.....................................................................................................................9（一）金银市场分析.....................................................................................................................91、金银比价已降至低位区间...........................................92、全球央行购金步伐依然稳健.........................................93、金银ETF持仓量维持增加趋势......................................104、白银库存局部紧张的风险仍在......................................11（二）铂钯市场分析...................................................................................................................131、铂钯与金银的比价仍处于低位......................................132、美国铂钯高库存，钯非商业性净持仓转正.............................143、铂钯内外价差收敛................................................15四、行情展望及操作策略............................................................................................................16 图表目录 图表1近5年SHFE金银价格走势..............................................................................................4图表2近5年COMEX金银价格走势..........................................................................................4图表3金价与美元指数走势变化..................................................................................................4图表4金价与美债利率走势变化..................................................................................................4图表3金价与美元指数走势变化..................................................................................................5图表4金价与美债利率走势变化..................................................................................................5图表5主要经济体GDP增速变化................................................................................................7图表6美欧经济意外指数变化......................................................................................................7图表7美国ISM制造业PMI增速变化........................................................................................7图表8欧元区制造业PMI增速变化.............................................................................................7图表9美国职位空缺数变化..........................................................................................................7图表10美国周度初请和续请失业金人数....................................................................................7图表11美国非农就业人数和失业率变化....................................................................................8图表12美国时薪增速....................................................................................................................8图表13主要经济体CPI变化........................................................................................................8图表14美元PCE和核心PCE变化..............................................................................................8图表15美国通胀预期变化............................................................................................................8图表16美元指数与美元非商业性净头寸变化............................................................................8图表17 COMEX金银比价变化....................................................................................................9图表18沪期金银比价变化............................................................................................................9图表19主要央行黄金储备量......................................................................................................10图表20中国央行黄金储备变化..................................................................................................10图表21贵金属ETF持仓变化.....................................................................................................11图表22黄金ETF持仓变化.........................................................................................................11图表23白银ETF持仓变化.........................................................................................................11图表24 COMEX贵金属库存变化..............................................................................................12图表25 COMEX黄金库存变化..................................................................................................12图表26 COMEX白银库存变化..................................................................................................12图表27伦敦金银市场协会黄金库存