布莱恩的字节：解读AVGO、2026年展望、美光科技解读

USA | Semiconductors Blayne’s Bytes: Addressing AVGO, 2026 Outlook,MU Reads Market volatility persisted this week with AI names pulling back further. AVGOspecifically was the center of attention with concerns focused around COTrisks and margins. We believe these COT concerns are misplaced and expectsentiment to reverse in the new year with AVGO still our Top Pick. MU's beat inthe face of lofty expectations stands as the latest confirmation of AI demandfar outpacing supply. Looking forward to CES in the New Year! Happy Holidays!! Addressing the AVGO COT Concerns:AVGO sell-off continued this week with concerns buildingover a potential shift to Customer-Owned Tooling (COT) fed by lofty MTK forecasts (we see 150kCoWoS in 2027 as yet another bad data point). On this point, we would say Google’s COT desires arenothing new and we are skeptical that this MTK chip will see any real volume. We view it as a sideproject to test MTK’s Serdes and we would highlight that it’s a generation behind the v8 chip AVGOis working on (4-reticle at 2nm vs the derivative chip some are calling for). The demand for best-in-class IP (SerDes, die-to-die interconnect, reticle-limited packaging, 3D stacking architecture, etc.),and technical expertise are becoming even more critical. All this comes at a time when a setbackof even 6 months relative to NVDA or others could cause irreparable harm to GOOG's business.AVGO believes they are 8 years ahead of MTK and see the traction of v7x only reinforcing the needfor Google to push the ASIC roadmap. We believe the Meta and OAI ASIC programs remain ontrack and we expect to hear more data points in 1H from the supply chain to support these ramps.Interestingly, the 26GWs from OAI across NVDA/AVGO/AMD seems to be heavily discounted bythe investor base, adding another driver if OAI’s access to capital becomes clearer. 2026 Semis Outlook – Tripling Down on AI, Semi Cap Equipment Cycle Strong: For the third yearin a row, AI stocks remain our core focus with ASICs set to inflect higher and hyperscaler capexcontinuing to accelerate. AVGO remains our Top Pick offering significant upside potential with ourbottom-up estimates suggesting C27 EPS of $20+ vs. St. at $14.84. NVDA also one of our favoritesat an attractive valuation of 17x our bottom up C27 EPS of >$10. For Semi-Cap, we raised ourWFE estimates driven by improved outlook for leading-edge and memory. Upgraded KLAC to BUYreflecting stronger outlook for leading-edge and packaging driven by AI-related spending. AMATremains our favorite of the group given discount vs peers. Rotation into Analog is appealing dueto lower interest rates but we’re concerned this may be a premature reaction to modest earnings/mid-quarter raises. Favorites of the group are ADI & MTSI on better business mix and DC upside.Please find our full 2026 Outlook note HERE and a replay of our Webinar discussing next year’soutlook HERE. OAI Potential AMZN Partnership:Reports this week suggest AMZN could invest $10B+ inOpenAI with deal potentially including access to Trainium chips and partnerships in ecommerce/enterprise AI. We view this as a modestly positive read for the Trainium ecosystem but moreimportantly another bullish demand signal as OAI works to secure as much compute as possible.In our ReInvent note HERE, we note that although Trn3 performance looks better relative to pastgenerations, overall performance still trails other solutions. The response to the announcement,muted performance from Tranium-levered MRVL and ALAB, speaks to the limited appetite for AIexposure as we transition into year-end. We continue to believe AI outperforms in C26 and lookto Blackwell-trained models likely to be released in early C26 as potential catalysts to help get thetrade back on track. Blayne Curtis * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7493 | bcurtis@jefferies.com Kevin Garrigan * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2317 | kgarrigan@jefferies.com Ezra Weener * | Equity Associate(917) 344-1860 | eweener@jefferies.com Crawford Clarke, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 336-7399 | cclarke2@jefferies.com Alex Fernandez * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8731 | afernandez1@jefferies.com Reads from MU Earnings – Memory Demand Off the Charts:MU (uncovered) earnings drove shareshigher after forward guidance reported significantly above expectations ($18.7B vs St. $14.5B) tied toa combination of better pricing and relentless demand. The results are the latest data point into AI chipdemand and paint a considerably better picture than current sentiment would suggest. Managementoffered an updated HBM TAM of $100B by C28 (vs $35B in C25), 2 years ahead of prior view, supportingfaster growth for both GPUs and ASICs. For Capex, MU raised F26 estimates to $20B vs. Streetestimates for $19.5B but below some whisper estimates for $22B. That said, accelerated Idaho fabtimeline (Mid27 vs 2H27 prior) and anticipated F27 Capex uptick sound positive for Semi-cap namesin our coverage, especially DRAM-levered names like AMAT.