布莱恩的字节：关于安高华（AVGO）、2026年展望及美光科技（MU）的解读

USA | Semiconductors Blayne’s Bytes: Addressing AVGO, 2026 Outlook,MU Reads specifically was the center of attention with concerns focused around COTrisks and margins. We believe these COT concerns are misplaced and expectsentiment to reverse in the new year with AVGO still our Top Pick. MU's beat in over a potential shift to Customer-Owned Tooling (COT) fed by lofty MTK forecasts (we see 150k CoWoS in 2027 as yet another bad data point). On this point, we would say Google’s COT desires arenothing new and we are skeptical that this MTK chip will see any real volume. We view it as a sideproject to test MTK’s Serdes and we would highlight that it’s a generation behind the v8 chip AVGOis working on (4-reticle at 2nm vs the derivative chip some are calling for). The demand for best-in-class IP (SerDes, die-to-die interconnect, reticle-limited packaging, 3D stacking architecture, etc.),and technical expertise are becoming even more critical. All this comes at a time when a setback of even 6 months relative to NVDA or others could cause irreparable harm to GOOG's business.AVGO believes they are 8 years ahead of MTK and see the traction of v7x only reinforcing the needfor Google to push the ASIC roadmap. We believe the Meta and OAI ASIC programs remain on continuing to accelerate. AVGO remains our Top Pick offering significant upside potential with ourbottom-up estimates suggesting C27 EPS of $20+ vs. St. at $14.84. NVDA also one of our favoritesat an attractive valuation of 17x our bottom up C27 EPS of >$10. For Semi-Cap, we raised ourWFE estimates driven by improved outlook for leading-edge and memory. Upgraded KLAC to BUYreflecting stronger outlook for leading-edge and packaging driven by AI-related spending. AMATremains our favorite of the group given discount vs peers. Rotation into Analog is appealing dueto lower interest rates but we’re concerned this may be a premature reaction to modest earnings/ Blayne Curtis * | Equity Analyst OpenAI with deal potentially including access to Trainium chips and partnerships in ecommerce/enterprise AI. We view this as a modestly positive read for the Trainium ecosystem but more (212) 336-7493 | bcurtis@jefferies.com importantly another bullish demand signal as OAI works to secure as much compute as possible.In our ReInvent note HERE, we note that although Trn3 performance looks better relative to pastgenerations, overall performance still trails other solutions. The response to the announcement, Ezra Weener * | Equity Associate(917) 344-1860 | eweener@jefferies.com Crawford Clarke, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 336-7399 | cclarke2@jefferies.com Alex Fernandez * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8731 | afernandez1@jefferies.com Reads from MU Earnings – Memory Demand Off the Charts:MU (uncovered) earnings drove shares higher after forward guidance reported significantly above expectations ($18.7B vs St. $14.5B) tied to a combination of better pricing and relentless demand. The results are the latest data point into AI chipdemand and paint a considerably better picture than current sentiment would suggest. Managementoffered an updated HBM TAM of $100B by C28 (vs $35B in C25), 2 years ahead of prior view, supportingfaster growth for both GPUs and ASICs. For Capex, MU raised F26 estimates to $20B vs. Streetestimates for $19.5B but below some whisper estimates for $22B. That said, accelerated Idaho fabtimeline (Mid27 vs 2H27 prior) and anticipated F27 Capex uptick sound positive for Semi-cap names remains healthy as MU showed solid Q2F26 Guide with record NAND revenue in Q1F26. As an industry,bit shipment could be limited as suppliers like Samsung and Other Korean Memory Vendor work toupgrade existing fabs, but overall demand appears better. MU noted bit shipments grew +M/HSD%in NovQ amid HDD shortages and surge in demand for eSSDs. Pricing momentum remained strongwith all major vendors reportedly implementing price increases and MU’s ASP growing Mid-Teens % Intel in Advanced Talks to Acquire SambaNova:Earlier this week, it was reported that Intel is in advanced talks to acquire Palo Alto-based AI-chip startup SambaNova Systems for approximately $1.6B. For Intel, the acquisition represents some follow-through on earnings call commentaryabout developing compute platforms for emerging inference workloads. SambaNova's technology,specifically its "Reconfigurable Data Units" (RDUs), is optimized for efficient, high-performanceinference. The SambaRack system includes 16x Cerulean SN40L RDUs, with 520MB SRAM, 64GBHBM, and 768GB of DDR each with a typical total rack power profile of 10kW. The deal has not yet been finalized but expectations are for an announcement as early as January 2026. It should be noted has received a binding offer from MediaKind to acquire its Video Business segment for $145 million in cash. The deal, expected to close in the first half of 2026, is subject to French employee consultation,regulatory approvals, and customary conditions. Harmo