2026年展望：不再是忙音（防御性重估尚未完成）

Outlook 2026: No longer a busy tone(defensive re-rating incomplete) Robert Grindle, Ph.D. Still defensive and more offensive Research Analyst+44-20-754-58490 European telcos kept pace with an up-market again in 2025 whilst intra-yearremained defensive. Resilience to sell-offs whilst moving towards market repair,higher returns and value events bode well even if rates are less supportive of 'bondproxy'. We advocate broad exposure whilst avoiding risk hot-spots and poor value. Keval Khiroya, CFAResearch Analyst+44-20-754-18164 Roshan Ranjit, CFAResearch Analyst+44-20-754-52908 Less call bar, firmly back on investor radarThe US ($ and telco) was a drag and EM a boon in the year just passed - a change vs prior and ongoing relevant for stock selection. In general, rising telcos (manybetter than local indices) have triggered a process of long-only investor re-engagement. We see a follow-through due to improving fundamentals and M&Awith AI a helpful support to margins (without the weight of expectations). John Karidis Research Analyst+44-20-754-54610 Vijay SaravananResearch Associate New deals to speed dial investor appeal 2025 saw a MNO merger close but no new ones announced. We are increasinglyhopeful for more but note the costs of synergy extraction and a reticence to up-end25 years of regulation. Whilst, behavioural remedies will protect the extant marketthe scope for increased disorder is abating. We see new mergers in 2026 withbalance sheet simplification and value reveal a further material support. Ankit SharmaResearch Associate Telco tectonics shift slowly but FCF and returns hotline ringing The weight of fibre build will lighten as capital intensity wanes but markets wherebuild out is cheap are seeing an infrastructure challenge. This will prove painful inthe UK and ES but we do not envisage alt-net mayhem in DE and fibre collaborationin BE may trigger a reappraisal of fixed infra value. Falling rates were not an assistfor towers in 2025 which may create an opportunity for 2026. Decreasing risk to the downside with upside dispersion to widen In a potentially volatile (FIFA World Cup) year, our 2026 large-cap telco picks areOrange,Vodafone&Telecom Italiato play in offence under base case +ve sectormomentum withDeutsche Telekom&KPNin defence should markets prove lesssupportive.One'wild card'is Cellnex with Sell-rated Telefonica&BTnon-qualifiers.Amongst mid-caps we rateZegona,Liberty Global, Airtel Africa&Helios Towersin Offence withSunrise&OTEin defence.Inwit,1&1, SES, GAMA&TEPare 'wild cards' butTelekom Austria&Eutelsatremain 'on the bench'. Chief risks: competition, interest rates andweaker USD / EM forex. Distributed on: 11/12/2025 05:02:23 GMTDistributed on: 11/12/2025 05:02:23 GMTIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank doesand seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm mayhave a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision. 11 December 2025Wireline ServicesEuropean Telcos Executive summary............................................................3 Telco rally broadened in 2025...........................................10 Telcos kept up (ex DT)...with an up market ...................................................... 10How did our picks perform? ............................................................................ 14Rates were volatile...CH risk out-performed (again) ........................................ 17Telco bond yields have fallen and spread to Govt narrowed............................19Forex a drag for most in 2025..........................................................................20Looking at consensus forecast revisions.........................................................22Sell-side positioning ........................................................................................ 23Incumbent operational trends improving ........................................................ 24 Defensive re-rating to extend in 2026...............................26 DB macro particularly supportive for US and DE exposure ............................. 26Equity strategy view bullish but no help from rates and USD..........................30Operator rankings by GDP and inflation .......................................................... 37Interest rate impact on FCF and debt servicing ............................................... 38DB bottom-up sector estimates.......................................................................40 Consolidation catalysts .................................................... 41 Italy (TI and SCMN impacted)..........................................................................41Sweden (TNOR, TEL2, TELIA impacted)..........................................................42Germany (1&