中国半导体：2025年回顾与2026年展望

China Semiconductors: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook sector with the highest certainty on EPS growth and most reasonable valuation. EPS shouldgrow in the range of ~30% while P/E re-rate driven by better visibility on long-term upsideshould contribute another ~20% upside. NAURA vs AMEC likely will continue to rotate as weight on NAURA/AMEC.NAURA is cheaper, while AMEC has better management teamquality.Piotechlikely will have higher elasticity but generally more difficult to track.OP on all three names.AI Chip:As domestic advanced logic foundry supply should start to grow exponentially,we believe AI chip names should enjoy the highest elasticity. We project that Cambricon’s from the beta. We likeCambricon > Hygon, both OP.Foundry: We believe both SMIC and Hua Hong benefit both from better than expecteddemand from matured logic and faster than expected capacity expansion in advanced logic. penetration could further accelerate as OEMs need it. As the only L2++ chip alternative toNvidia, Horizon should capture more OEM design wins, while Black Sesame may continueto suffer.OP on Horizon Robotics, UP on Black Sesame. Analog:We don’t expect the analog recovery to be a strong upcycle given weak macro andhigh inventory. Silergy potentially could start to recover in 2H26 but also need to wait for a BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate NAURA, AMEC, Piotech, SMIC, Hua Hong, Cambricon, Hygon, Horizon Robotics Outperform, Silergy Market-Perform, Table Of Contents China AI 2026 Outlook: It’s the end of the beginning................................................................................................................................................ 7China Semicap 2026 Outlook: Will it ever slow down?.......................................................................................................................................... 15China Foundry 2026 Outlook: All eyes on advanced logic expansion............................................................................................................... 22China Smart Driving SoC 2026 Outlook: L2++ penetration acceleration........................................................................................................ 27China Analog 2026 Outlook: Moderate recovery...................................................................................................................................................... 35Our most popular research in 2025...............................................................................................................................................................................42 Farewell 2025, hello 2026. As we wrap up the second year of our China Semiconductors sector coverage, we are publishingthis call to look-back at our published views during the year, review what worked and what didn't, and hope to learn from thelessons and apply that to our future work. With that, we also summarize our outlook for 2026 by five sub-sectors (AI chip,Semicap, Foundry, Smart Driving chip, Analog).Our top picks in the sector for the next 12-months: NAURA/AMEC,Cambricon, Horizon Robotics.We appreciate your support throughout 2025, and looking forward to working with you again in 2026. 2025 REVIEW: WHAT WORKED AND WHAT DID NOT off with a market sentiment distinctly different from that of 2024. When we launched our coverage on the China semiconductorsub-sector in early 2024, A-share and H-share markets were mired in a prolonged slump, with investor sentiment remainedexceptionally tepid. The turning point arrived in September 2024, when a rally reshaped the market tone heading into year-end, laying the groundwork for a more optimistic 2025. Amid escalating US-China trade tensions in 1H25, Chinese semiconductorstocks generally posted positive reactions. The narrative slightly shifted in 2H25, however, with investigations into Nvidia’s AI chip "backdoor" vulnerabilities and Texas Instruments’ (TI) alleged analog chip dumping marking a new phase for the sector:Chinese authorities have grown proactive in imposing stricter restrictions on US semiconductor imports, a shift underpinned by rising confidence in the competitiveness of domestic alternatives for certain semi products. We have longmaintained the view that US export controls act as a double-edged sword: while they have hindered China’s progress in cutting- sub-sectors—including semicap, mature-node logic manufacturing, analog chips etc. This localization theme is poised to persistinto 2026, as evidenced by recent policy announcements outlining new rules to further drive semicap localization. China AI was the new narrative in 2025 andwill likely be even stronger in 2026.The first catalyst was the "DeepSeekmoment" in early 2025—a watershed event widely regarded as a defining milestone for China’s AI industry. Prior to DeepSeek, months behind global leaders, and that meaningful AI innovation remains feasible despite computing power constraints