超越绿色就业：为不断变化的劳动力市场推进指标和建模方法

Beyond Green Jobs Advancing Metrics and Modeling Approachesfor a Changing Labor MarketPublic Disclosure Authorized Penny MealyJoris BückerFernanda Senra de MouraCamilla Knudsen Chief Climate Economist OfficeNovember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11262 Abstract The concept of “green jobs” has received widespread atten-tion in academic, policy, and public discourse, reflectingthe growing emphasis on sustainability and the transitionto a low-carbon economy. However, defining and measur-ing green jobs remains analytically challenging and highlysensitive to methodological choices. This paper systemat-ically examines how alternative classification criteria anddata aggregation methods produce markedly divergent esti-mates of green jobs. It shows that the share of occupationsidentified as green ranges from 0 to 74 percent dependingon the methodology, raising concerns about the compa-rability and usefulness of green job estimates in practice.Moving beyond the traditional green jobs framing, thepaper proposes a more pragmatic and flexible frameworkthat focuses on identifying jobs-in-demand and jobs-at-risk under specific transition scenarios. This approach allows forapplication across different country contexts and differenttransition scenarios and can also incorporate other struc-tural labor market shocks, such as technological change ordemographic shifts. The paper undertakes a literature reviewof quantitative methodologies to analyze labor reallocationin the context of given labor market shocks, highlightingthe trade-offs between backward-looking (historical transi-tion matrices) and forward-looking (task- and skill-based)approaches. It also discusses key challenges in integratinglabor market dynamics into macroeconomic models andtakes stock of recent efforts in hybrid modeling that com-bines macroeconomic frameworks with micro-level labormarket insights. The paper concludes by outlining priorityareas for future research and methodological development. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Beyond Green Jobs: Advancing Metrics andModeling Approaches for a Changing LaborMarket1 Penny Mealy, Joris Bücker, Fernanda Senra de Moura, Camilla Knudsen Keywords: Green jobs, labor mobility, labor market modeling, structural change, just transition JEL codes: J21, J24, J62, Q52, Q56 1.Introduction The global transition to a low-carbon economy is not just about technological or industrialtransformations—it involves a fundamental reshuffling of the labor market. As countries adoptcleaner energy sources, shift toward more sustainable production and pursue climate resilience,these structural changes ripple through the economy, affecting what types of jobs are created,transformed, or destroyed. The concept of ‘green jobs’ has become a central reference point inthese discussions, representing the aspiration that climate action can generate more and betterjobs. Yet despite its appeal, the term remains poorly defined and inconsistently applied. Debatescontinue over what qualifies as a green job, how to measure them,and how to account fordifferences across contrasting country contexts(Ruppert Bulmer et al., forthcoming). This paper argues that a narrow focus on green job labels, however well-intentioned, can obscurethe broader and more dynamic employment shifts underway. Definitional ambiguity, datalimitations, and the uneven quality of labor statistics across countries often lead to inconsistentestimates and limited insights for policy making. This paper instead proposes an alternativeapproach that moves beyond binary “green” or “brown”classifications to focus on identifying “jobs-in-demand” and “jobs-at-risk” under various green transition scenarios. This frameworkemphasizes shifts in labor demand as a function of country-specific transition pathways andsectoral structures, offeringa more pragmatic and actionable lens for labor policy design. Thisapproach can also be applied to analyze scenarios other than the green transition, such as changesin labor demand due to digitalization and other technological transition and changes in laborsupply such as aging or changing education levels. Moreover, it can better capture the interactionsacross transition, such