劳动力市场动态、货币政策权衡和追求最大就业的短缺方法

Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online) Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and aShortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employment Brent Bundick, Isabel Cair´o, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau 2025-068 Please cite this paper as:Bundick, Brent, Isabel Cair´o, and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau (2025). “Labor Market Dynam-ics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs, and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing Maximum Employ-ment,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-068. Washington: Board of Governorsof the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.068. NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Labor Market Dynamics, Monetary Policy Tradeoffs,and a Shortfalls Approach to Pursuing MaximumEmployment Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairó, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as backgroundfor its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, andcommunications. Abstract:This paper reviews recent academic studies to assess the implications of adopting ashortfalls, rather than a deviations, approach to pursuing maximum employment. Model-basedsimulations from these studies suggest three main findings. First, shortfalls rules generateinflationary pressure relative to deviations rules, which offsets downward pressure on inflationstemming from the presence of the effective lower bound. Second, since monetary policy leansagainst these inflationary pressures, a shortfalls rule implies a limited effect on average outcomesin the labor market. Finally, studies suggest that monetary policy can offset higher-than-desiredaverage inflation under a shortfalls rule by leaning more strongly against deviations of inflationfrom the 2 percent objective, thereby keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. JEL Classification:E32, E52, E58. Keywords:Asymmetric monetary policy strategies, maximum employment, effective lowerbound. 1. Introduction and overview At the conclusion of the 2019–20 framework review, the Federal Open MarketCommittee (FOMC) revised its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy toindicate that it seeks over time to mitigate shortfalls, rather than deviations, of employment fromits maximum level. This paper assesses the implications of adopting a shortfalls approach topursuing maximum employment by reviewing recent academic studies. Our key takeaways arethe following: •Recent studies using model-based simulations find that shortfalls rules—in which policyrates do not respond to the labor market when the labor market is tight—generate inflationarypressures relative to deviations rules, regardless of the nature of business cycle shocks.Because households and firms are forward looking in these models and experience andexpect a more accommodative policy stance in expansions, firms would raise prices by morein anticipation of stronger household demand. This increase in average inflation offsetsdownward pressures on inflation stemming from the proximity of interest rates to theeffective lower bound (ELB), even without the adoption of makeup strategies, and reducesthe frequency and severity of ELB episodes.1 •The average effect of shortfalls rules on the labor market is limited due to two offsettingforces. On the one hand, the direct effect from less policy tightening during expansionsunder a shortfalls approach leads to larger declines in the unemployment rate. On the otherhand, the indirect effect from expectations of higher average inflation leads to tighter policy,a contractionary force that limits the labor market gains during expansions and leads to largerincreases in the unemployment rate during contractions. Both effects are present in thesemodels for any configuration of shocks and regardless of whether the ELB is binding. •Studies indicate that monetary policy can offset higher-than-desired average inflation under ashortfalls approach by leaning more strongly against deviations of inflation from the2 percent objective, which can keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.Existing work finds that, under benchmark calibrations, ELB episodes are still less frequentunder a shortfalls rule if policymakers respond more aggressively to inflation deviations. •Policymakers may also find it appropriate to lean strongly against high inflation, from a risk-management perspective, when faced with uncertainty regarding potential nonlinearities inthe Phillips cur