五大摩擦：绿色转型中释放就业增长的主要劳动力市场障碍

FIVE FRICTIONS: KEY LABORMARKET BARRIERS TOUNLOCKING JOB GROWTHIN THE GREEN TRANSITIONPLANET AND PROSPERITYPLANET AND PROSPERITYPublic Disclosure Authorized FIVE FRICTIONS: KEY LABORMARKET BARRIERS TOUNLOCKING JOB GROWTHIN THE GREEN TRANSITION A verified reproducibility package for this publication isavailable at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org,click here for direct access. Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes,or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other informationshown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal statusof any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authoredby others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the contentof their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of theprivileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination ofits knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as longas full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2025. Five Frictions: Key Labor MarketBarriers to Unlocking Job Growth in the Green Transition. © World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design: Maria Lopez TABLEOF CONTENTS Acronymsvi Acknowledgements Executive Summary 1. Introduction6 2. A Framework for Identifying Labor Market Frictions in theGreen Transition9 3.1 Skill Mismatches133.2 Spatial Mismatches183.3 Temporal Mismatches223.4 Norm Mismatches243.5 Preference Mismatches27 4. Overcoming Labor Market Frictions30 4.1 Closing the Skill Gap344.2 Overcoming Spatial Challenges384.3 Strategic Temporal Coordination414.4 Inclusive Workforce Strategies424.5 Navigating Preference Barriers44 5. Discussion and Future Work46 References48 Acronyms Acknowledgements Thispaper is one of several deliverables prepared under the Whole-of-Economy: Social and Just Transitionproject. It was prepared by a World Bankteamcomprising Camilla Knudsen(Economist),Fernanda Senra de Moura(Consultant), Joris Bücker (Consultant), and Penny Mealy (Senior Economist). Theteam is grateful to Aart Kraay, Alejandro de la Fuente, Elizabeth Ruppert Bulmer,Gabriela Inchauste, Ira Irina Dorband, Jamele Rigolini, Lulit Mitik Beyene, MikiKhanh Doan, Raphaelle Martinez, Ruth Hill, Samuel Freije-Rodriguez, ThomasFarole, and Trang Van Nguyen for invaluable guidance and insightful comments.The authors extend special thanks to Stéphane Hallegatte for his support andcontributions throughout the development of this work. The authors also thanktheWhole-of-Economyprogram, supported by theClimate Support Facilitytrustfund, for funding this work. ABSTRACT The labor market is undergoing major changes driven by technological, economic,and demographic factors. Climate change and climate action are contributing tothese shifts, driving growth in some sectors while causing decline in others. Inthe context of the green transition, the overall impact on employment is expectedto be neutral or net positive. However, labor market frictions can hinder workersfrom transitioning out of declining sectors or into growing ones, posing significantdevelopment challenges. These bottlenecks can slow down the pace of the greentransition and lead to adverse outcomes for workers who are unable to findsuitable alternative employment, resulting in negative impacts at both the microand macroeconomic levels. This paper proposes a framework that classifies labor market frictions along fivedimensions:whatworkers do,whereworkers are,whenworkers are available,whoworkers are, andwhypeople work. Frictions arise when there is a misalignmentbetween labor supply and labor demand in any of these dimensions. Within theframework, these misalignments are categorized as skill-, spatial-, temporal-,norm-, or preference-related mismatches, respectively. Drawing on insights fromWorld Bank analyses, the paper further identifies potential solutions to addresseach friction, providing guidance for policym