突尼斯经济监测，2025年秋季：加强社会安全网以提高效率和公平（英）2025

Strengthening SocialSafety Nets forIncreased Fall 2025 TunisiaEconomic Monitor Strengthening Social Safety Nets forIncreased Efficiency and Equity Fall 2025 Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or fail-ure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and otherinformation shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legalstatus of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immuni-ties of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The WorldBank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photos courtesy of: (top) Alex Cimbal/Shutterstock, (center left); RecCameraStock/Shutterstock; (center right),WorldBank; and (bottom) stu.dio/Shutterstock.Further permission required for reuse. TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vList of acronyms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .viiExecutive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ixRésumé exécutif. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xiiiالملخص التنفيذي. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xvii Part A:Recent Economic Developments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 1.After years of slow growth, the Tunisian economy is showing signs of recovery in 2025, drivenbyfavorable climatic and external conditions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.An increase in the current account deficit was offset by a surplus in the capital account, keepingthelevel of foreign reserves stable. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63.Inflation continued to moderate, leading the Central Bank to lower its main policy rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84.The government is engaging in fiscal consolidation, but debt levels remain elevated. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95.In the medium term, the economy is expected to grow 2.4 percent on average,withmarkeddownsideand some upside risks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Part B:Tunisia’s Non-Contributory Social Safety Net Program: Challenges, Opportunities,andImpacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 List of Figures Figure 1Tunisia’sEconomyRecovered in 2025…. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Figure 2…butContinues toDiverge fromRegionalPeers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Figure 3After aSharpDecline in 2023,Agriculture isExpected toReturn to its 2022Level ofActivityin2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Figure 4Hydrocarbons andFinance andConstructionDraggedGrowth in 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2Figure B.1Industrial Production IndexFigure B.2Revealed Comparative Advantage Indicator for MEEFigure B.3Sh