价格过低和过度使用：2025年化石燃料补贴数据更新（英）

Underpriced andOverused: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data 2025 Update Simon Black, Weronika Celniak, Alberto Garcia-Huitron, IanParry, Paulina Schulz-Antipa, and Nate Vernon-Lin WP/25/270 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025DEC IMF Working PaperFiscal Affairs Department Underpriced and Overused: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data 2025 UpdatePrepared by Simon Black, Weronika Celniak, Alberto Garcia-Huitron, Ian Parry, Paulina Schulz Antipa, Authorized for distribution by Dora Benedek IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper provides a bi-annual assessment of efficient fossil fuel prices and subsidies for 170countries, based on a comprehensive analysis of environmental and other externalities from fuel consumption.Globally, explicit (or fiscal) subsidies were $725 billion (0.6 percent of GDP) in 2024. Implicit subsidies,primarily underpricing of environmental costs, were $6.7 trillion (5.8 percent of GDP), with three quarters fromunderpriced air pollution and climate change.*Relative to GDP, explicit subsidies have stablized at pre-COVIDlevels while implicit subidies have increased somewhat and are expected to rise gradually until 2035. Explicitsubsidy removal would reduce CO2emissions by six percent below baseline levels in 2035, avoid 70,000 RECOMMENDED CITATION:Black, Simon, Weronika Celniak, Ian Parry, Paulina Schulz Antipa, NateVernon-Lin, 2025. “Underpriced, Overused, and Fueling Inequality: Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data 2025 Update” WORKING PAPERS Underpriced and Overused: FossilFuel Subsidies Data 2025 Update Prepared by Simon Black, Weronika Celniak, Alberto Garcia-Huitron, IanParry, Paulina Schulz Antipa, and Nate Vernon-Lin1 Contents Executive Summary ..............................................................................................................................................31.Introduction..............................................................................................................................................52.Conceptual, Measurement, and Data Issues ..........................................................................................7 FIGURES 1. Conceptual Distinction Between Explicit and Implicit Fuel Subsidies ...............................................................92. Comparing Current and Efficient Fuel Prices, G20 and Select Other Countries, 2024...................................113. Estimated and Projected Explicit and Implicit Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies over Time, .................................123. Estimated and Projected Explicit and Implicit Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies over Time, .................................144. Decomposition of Explicit and Total Global Subsidies by Fuel Product..........................................................145. Decomposition of Total Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies by Component 2024....................................................156. Decomposition of Total Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies by Sector, 2024...........................................................157. Decomposition of Total Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies by Region, 2024..........................................................168. Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Under Alternative Scenarios for Future Fuel Prices ................................179. Revenue Gains from Fuel Price Reform by Region, 2035 ..............................................................................1710. Environmental Benefits and Economic Costs of Fuel Price Reform by Region, 2035 ..................................1811. Global Subsidy Distribution by Fuel, 2024 ....................................................................................................2112. Impact of Explicit Fossil Fuel Subsidy Phaseout on Purchasing Power, 2035 .............................................23 TABLES1. Contrasting Explicit and Implicit Subsidies........................................................................................................6 Executive Summary Globally, fossil fuel prices in most countries are inefficient as they fail to adequately charge for both the supplyand environmental costs of fuel use. Consequently, countries’ scarce resources are misallocated betweenfossil fuels and other sectors, promoting greenhouse gas emissions, local air pollution deaths and other This paper presents a biannual assessment of the efficient set of prices on fossil fuel products, by sector, andsubsidies implied by undercharging relative to efficient prices, for 170 countries. Results are available online1 and based on an extensive compilation and update of energy and environmental data using the IMF-World As in previous IMF reports, this paper distinguishes between