2026年分配器解决方案：私人市场机会

An Allocator Solutions report on 2026 Contents OverviewEconomic developmentsOpportunities and risks across private marketsBuyoutVenture capitalPrivate creditReal estate and real assetsConcluding remarks PitchBook Data, Inc. Nizar TarhuniExecutive Vice President of Researchand Market Intelligence Daniel Cook, CFAGlobal Head of Quantitative Research andMarket Intelligence Zane Carmean, CFA, CAIADirector of Quantitative Research Institutional Research Group Analysis Taylor Criswell, CFASenior Quantitative Research Analysttaylor.criswell@pitchbook.com Andrew Akers, CFALead Quantitative Research Analystandrew.akers@pitchbook.com Juan Mier, CFALead Research Analyst, Fund Strategies &Sustainable Investing Nathan Schwartz, CFASenior Quantitative Research Analystnathan.schwartz@pitchbook.com pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Publishing Report designed byJenna O’MalleyandJosie Doan Published on December 16, 2025 Clickherefor PitchBook’s report methodologies. Overview scenarios, to assess the appeal of allocating new capitalto closed-end private market funds. Figure 1 summarizesour views on each asset class, categorizing them as having With a backdrop of economic and credit cycles entering theirlater stages, easing monetary policy, and the historic seculargrowth narrative surrounding AI, we examine the risks and Economic developments absorbed the impact of tariffs in stride. Inflation has remainedstubbornly above 2%, but it has cooled considerably over thepast several years. As a result, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) If you look past the headlines of 2025 and focus on outcomes,it is almost surprising how normal things look. In the firstquarter, net exports plummeted and businesses hoarded In each edition of this annual report, we lay out our visionof the branching paths the economy could take and theirimpacts on private markets. These assumptions are built upon with inflation at 2% and real GDP growth equal to potentialreal growth. For each of the four potential outcomes in thisframework, we assign a probability and, given the weighted Looking back at last year’s report, we favored outcomesin the right half of our scenario matrix. With the incomingUS presidential administration and accelerating capitalexpenditures going toward AI infrastructure, there was a Corporate margins have absorbed the initial impact of tariffs,and the US Supreme Court looks poised to overturn thecurrent set of levies. The outcome may be that of a coin flip, The scale of the infrastructure build-out driving AI hasbeen staggering. Across the five largest publicly tradedhyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle),combined capital expenditures have compounded at nearly40% annually since 2020. Through the first nine months Those fringe concerns about the US consumer now feelmaterial and the growth outlook has become more precariousas tariff announcements have taken center stage. Inflationhas continued to normalize throughout 2025, albeit above the Capital has been poured into NVIDIA GPUs, gas turbines, andhundreds of thousands of tons of cement to build datacenters.This investment has created massive tailwinds for the The remainder of the economy is far cooler. We are starting tosee shifts in consumer behavior that might precede broadercontraction. For example, seasonally adjusted retail sales at liquor stores and wine shops peaked in November 2024,potentially signaling consumer stress. The November 2025edition of the Beige Book has conflicting messages about Unemployment also remains well below long-term averages,and hiring has only modestly declined over the past twoyears. Yet the number of open roles has dropped over 40%since March 2022, and payroll growth has stalled in the pastyear. The glass-half-full view would point to low firings and The tension between hot capital markets and a weakeningconsumer has put the Fed in a difficult position. And withouttraditional data releases, markets have clung tightly to every Opportunities and risks acrossprivate markets The environment in which buyout funds are deploying capitalhas become significantly more favorable in recent quarters,and we expect this to continue into 2026. High debt costs,along with sellers that were unwilling to make concessionson valuations, broke the buyout model for many potentialdeals after the Fed began raising rates in 2022. To use B-rated Buyout Strategic view: Neutral Opportunities •A positive environment for deploying capital: PE dealmaking has re-emerged in 2025 as debtcosts have decreased while entry multiples have •Providing liquidity in the secondaries market: Although the exit environment has recently improved,a significant need remains for alternative liquidity Since then, tighter credit spreads, combined with 150 totalbasis points in rate cuts from the Fed, have favorably shifteddebt costs to more reasonable levels. The yield to maturity ofB-rated leveraged loans trading in the secondary market was8.1% as