不断上涨的美国关税的意外赢家是墨西哥

Its exports to the U.S. have surged since President Trump imposed new duties on countries this year ⾃从特朗普总统今年对各国征收新的关税以来，墨⻄哥对美国的出⼝激增 Dec. 26, 2025 9:00 pmET U.S.-Mexico trade in goods is on track to reach a record this year.JULIO CESAR AGUILAR/AFP/GETTYIMAGES 美墨商品贸易有望在今年创下历史新⾼。朱利奥·塞萨尔·阿吉拉尔/AFP/盖蒂图⽚社 Quick Summary快速摘要 Trade in goods between the U.S. and Mexico is on track to reach a recordof nearly $900 billion this year.…View more查看更多 MEXICO CITY—When President Trump beganraising tariffsearlier this year,government officials and economists feared Mexico’s export-led economy would take adevastating hit. Instead, Mexican exports to the U.S. have grown. 墨西哥城——今年早些时候特朗普总统开始提⾼关税时，政府官员和经济学家担⼼以出⼜为主导的墨西哥经济将遭受沉重打击。相反，墨西哥对美国的出⼜却有所增长。 Because Mexico’s ultimate tariff rate ended up lower than for most other countries, thedisparity has helped Mexican exports fill some of the gap left by Chinese productssubject to higher levies. 由于墨西哥最终⾯临的关税税率低于⼤多数其他国家，这种差异帮助墨西哥出⼜在⼀定程度上填补了因中国产品被征收更⾼关税⽽留下的空缺。 Producers seeking a foothold in the U.S. have said that Mexico still has all the inherentadvantages it had before tariffs—proximity to the U.S., a low-cost manufacturing industry and a frayed but intact free-trade agreement. 寻求在美国站稳脚跟的⽣产商表⽰，尽管有关税，墨西哥仍然保有此前的所有内在优势——毗邻美国、低成本的制造业，以及⼀项虽然受损但仍然存在的⾃由贸易协定。 Even with steep tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum bound for America, Mexicanmanufacturing exports to the U.S. rose almost 9% from January to November,compared with the first 11 months of 2024, according to Mexican government data.Auto-industry exports to the U.S. fell close to 6% during the period, but exports of othermanufactured goods surged 17%. 根据墨西哥政府数据，即便⾯向美国的汽车、钢铁和铝产品被征收⾼额关税，墨西哥对美国的制造业出⼜在1⽉⾄11⽉期间仍同⽐增长近9%，相⽐2024年前11个⽉。同期，汽车⾏业对美出⼜下降了近6%，但其他制成品的出⼜则激增17%。 Trade in goods between the U.S. and Mexico is on track to reach a record of nearly$900 billion this year. 美国与墨西哥之间的商品贸易额预计今年将达到接近9000亿美元的创纪录⽔平。 Mexico’s economy is projected by its central bank to expand 0.3% in 2025—anemic butfar from the contraction of 1% that was expected by now, said Kathryn Exum, co-headof sovereign research at Gramercy Funds Management, which manages about $7 billionin emerging-market assets. Gramercy Funds Management主权研究联席主管凯瑟琳·埃克萨姆表⽰，墨西哥央⾏预计该国经济将在2025年增长0.3%——虽然增长乏⼒，但远好于此前预计到⽬前为⽌将出现的1%萎缩。该公司管理着约70亿美元的新兴市场资产。 The Nearshore Co.’s experience illustrates how Mexico dodged a bullet in Trump’s tradewar. The company helps foreign manufacturers produce U.S.-bound goods in Mexicothrough its network of 18 industrial plants, mostly located along the border. Nearshore Co.的经历表明，墨西哥在特朗普的贸易战中侥幸躲过了⼀劫。这家公司通过其由18家⼯业园区组成的⽹络，帮助外国制造商在墨西哥⽣产销往美国的商品，这些园区⼤多位于边境沿线。 Jorge Gonzalez Henrichsen, co-chief executive at the company, said manymanufacturing-investment plans had been put on ice earlier this year until companieshad more clarity on the tariff levels for Mexico and other countries. Then came April 2—Liberation Day, as Trump calls it. 该公司联席⾸席执⾏官豪尔赫·冈萨雷斯·亨⾥克森表⽰，今年年初，许多制造业投资计划被暂时搁置，直到企业对针对墨西哥及其他国家的关税⽔平有更明确的判断。随后4⽉2⽇到来——特朗普称之为“解放⽇”。 The president stood outside the White House with placards listing new tariff rates foralmost every country—excluding Mexico. 总统站在⽩宫外，举着列有⼏乎所有国家新关税税率的牌⼦——唯独不包括墨西哥。 据称，墨⻄哥仍然拥有在加征关税之前就具备的所有内在优势——包括毗邻美国的地理位置。SANDY HUFFAKER/AFP/GETTY IMAGES Gonzalez Henrichsen said he quickly received an avalanche of calls from people whowanted to restart manufacturing projects in Mexico that they had paused because ofincoming tariffs. His clients concluded that Mexico was better off than many other U.S.trade partners, including rival manufacturers in Asia. 冈萨雷斯·亨⾥克森表⽰，他很快接到⼤量电话，来电者希望重启此前因即将到来的关税⽽暂停的墨西哥制造项⽬。他的客户认为，相⽐包括亚洲竞争制造商在内的许多美国贸易伙伴，墨西哥的处境要好得多。 “In fact, it was Liberation Day for us,” said Gonzalez Henrichsen. “事实上，对我们来说那是解放⽇，”冈萨雷斯·亨⾥克森说。 Mexico also overcame concerns about a “zombie” U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, aterm used to describe a scenario in which North America’s free-trade deal remains butis undermined by unilateral tariffs. 墨西哥还克服了对所谓“僵⼫版”《美国—墨西哥—加拿⼤协定》的担忧。这个术语指的是北美⾃由贸易协议名义上仍然存在，但被单边关税所削弱的情形。 Today, almost 85% of Mexico’s total exports remain tariff-free under the USMCA. 如今，在《美墨加协定》框架下，墨西哥近85%的出⼜总额仍然免征关税。 Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has worked hard to engage Trump and managehis use of trade as leverage on noneconomic issues. She has tightened drug enforcementalong the border,expelled imprisoned cartel bosseswanted by the U.S. and imposed50% tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles and other goods, defusing U.S. threats of harsher tariffs. 墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·希恩鲍姆⼀直努⼒与特朗普接触，并应对他将贸易作为处理⾮经济议题的施压⼯具。她加强了边境的毒品执法，驱逐了被美国通缉、已被监禁的贩毒集团头⽬，并对中国制造的汽车及其他商品征收50%的关税，从⽽化解了美国加征更严厉关税的威胁。 “Mexico has approached the relationship with the U.S. quite constructively,” said Exumof Gramercy. 格拉梅西的埃克瑟姆表⽰：“墨西哥以相当建设性的⽅式处理了与美国的关系。” Mexico still faces the highest tariffs in a generation: 25% on non-U.S. content in autos,up to 50% on aluminum and steel and 25% on non-USMCA-compliant exports imposedbecause the U.S. has said Mexico hasn’t done enough to curb drug flo