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2025-11-24国际货币基金组织y***

AI智能总结

Bulgaria's economic growth requires stronger convergence with the EU and addressing inflationary pressures through supply-side enhancements. Scaling up quality public investment is identified as a key driver for sustainable growth and development, with potential to boost productivity and private investment.

Public Investment Needs and Efficiency

Infrastructure quality and availability lag behind the EU average, particularly in transport, water, and energy sectors.
Both capital stock and public investment have been relatively low, with public investment lagging peers over the past decade.
Improving public investment efficiency can save up to 1.8% of GDP, as highlighted by the IMF's Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA).
Public procurement inefficiencies and corruption risks remain significant, with potential savings estimated at 5.3% of total procurement contract value.

Availability and Absorption of EU Funds

Bulgaria has access to €18.7 billion in EU funds (18% of 2024 GDP), including €6.2 billion under the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) and €12.5 billion under the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2021–27.
EU funds absorption has been slow, with only about 16% disbursed as of mid-October 2025, lagging behind peers.
RRP implementation delays are due to political factors, with only 22% of available funds disbursed as of September 2025.
Structural deficiencies, including prolonged project timelines, fragmented project structures, and administrative bottlenecks, hinder effective utilization of cohesion policy funds.

Simulating the Impact of Scaled-Up Quality Public Investment

The DIGNAR model simulates two scenarios: full absorption of available EU funds and gradual improvement in public investment efficiency.
Full EU funds absorption would increase public capital expenditures to 4.3% of GDP annually (2026–30), with efficiency-adjusted investment reaching 2.3% of GDP.
Gradual efficiency improvements (reducing the efficiency gap from 54% to 25% by 2030) further enhance growth dividends.
Simulations show that full EU funds absorption could boost GDP by 1% in 2030, while combined efficiency improvements could increase the gain to 2.3%.
Higher efficiency investments also lead to increased private investment, consumption, and exports, with minimal impact on public debt and current account.

Concluding Remarks

Scaling up quality public investment, along with accelerating EU funds absorption and improving efficiency, is crucial for Bulgaria's economic convergence and reducing internal disparities. The simulations underscore the substantial growth dividends from such investments, emphasizing the need for policy reforms in public investment management and procurement.

IMF Country Report No.25/307 BULGARIA SELECTED ISSUES November2025 This paperonBulgariawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201 International Monetary Fund BULGARIA SELECTED ISSUES November3, 2025 ApprovedByEuropean DepartmentPrepared by Vahram StepanyanandIglika Vassileva.Sabiha Mohonaand Cheryl Li provided research support. CONTENTS SCALING UP QUALITY PUBLIC INVESTMENT FOR STRONGER GROWTH__________2 A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________2B. PublicInvestmentNeeds andEfficiency______________________________________________3C. Availability andAbsorption of EUFunds_____________________________________________5D. Simulating theImpact ofScaledUpQualityPublicInvestment______________________7 FIGURES 1. Real GDP Growth and GDP Per Capita_______________________________________________22. Availability and Quality of Infrastructure_____________________________________________43. Capital Stock and Public Investment_________________________________________________54. EU Funds Absorption_________________________________________________________________65. Public Investment Scenarios__________________________________________________________8 ANNEX I. Baseline Model Calibration for Bulgaria_____________________________________________10 References____________________________________________________________________________11 SCALING UP QUALITY PUBLIC INVESTMENT FOR A.Introduction 1.Economic momentumhasbeen strongdespiteanuncertainenvironment,yeta morerobustgrowth is neededfor faster income convergence.Whileconvergence has been advancing,incomesinBulgariastill lagmost of itspeers(Figure 1),and inflationary pressures are emergingpointing tothe need to boost the supply side of the economy.Furthermore,Bulgariahasregional 2.Bulgariacanboosteconomicgrowth and income convergencebyscalingup qualitypublic investment.High quality public investment can beacatalyst forsustainableeconomicgrowthand development(IMF, 2020).Better availability and higher quality ofinfrastructure could 3.Increasing the efficiency of public investment will yield even higher growth dividends.Thesignificant investment needs could bebetter addressedand the impact on growth magnifiedby improving the efficiency of public investment.Estimates showthat Bulgaria couldachieveabout1.8percentof GDPin savingsby improving the efficiency of public investment(Hallaert et al, 2022). 4.There are substantial EUfundsavailable to financea significant increase in publicinvestment.Bulgaria has amajoropportunity to benefit from EU funds totaling around Euro18.7billion3(about18percentof 2024GDP)to scale upqualitypublic investment.These funds are 5.The remainder of this paper is structured as follows:Section Blooks at thequality of theinfrastructurein certain areas,discussesthestate ofpublic investmentanditsefficiency,andoutlinesareasfor improvementas well aspossible reforms tothat end;Section Cdiscusses theavailability of the EU funds,theirslowabsorptionandreasons;Section Dpresents a model that is B.PublicInvestmentNeeds andEfficiency 6.There is substantial room to improve the availabilityand qualityof infrastructure,andhigher and more efficient public investment iskey to achievingthis.Bulgaria’s quality andavailability of infrastructure in many areas lag the EU average (Ari et al, 2020).For example, thereissubstantial roomto improve the quality of transport-related infrastructureas the transport networkappearsboth inadequately maintained and insufficient to meet business needs(Hallaert et al, 2022).Adequateroad and public transportationinfrastructureis neededto connect remote and less- Figure 2.Bulgaria:Availability and Quality of Infrastructure Sources:Eurostat, World Development Indicators and IMF staff calculations. Sources:Eurostat, World Development Indicators and IMF staff calculations. 7.Boththecapital stock and public investment havebeen relatively lowduring recent years.The capital stock is low compared to OECD countries,both relative to GDP and thepopulation (OECD, 2023).Additionally,public investmenthaslagged peersduring most of the pastdecade(text figure).While public investment wasmainlydriven by the EU-funded projects,their 8.Improving the efficiency of public investment is critical to ensure greater returns forpublic spending, particularly in infrastructure.According to theIMF’sPublic InvestmentManagement Assessment (PIMA), theBulgarian public investment management system performsrelatively well in regional comparison, supported by stable fiscal framework and ample fundingavailability. However, despite recent progress, the effectiveness and efficiency of public investment 9.Public procurement, i

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