亚美尼亚共和国：选定问题

REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA SELECTED ISSUES December 2025 This paperonthe Republic of Armeniawas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201 International Monetary Fund REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA SELECTED ISSUES November10, 2025 ApprovedByMiddle East and Prepared ByMasud Al Taj, Nazim Belhocine,VahramJanvelyan, andErvin Prifti,with assistance fromDesislavaHineva,BrandenLaumannandXiaoqiao Shen. CONTENTS EVALUATING ARMENIA’S FISCAL FRAMEWORK___________________________________2A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________2B. Armenia’s Fiscal Framework Performance____________________________________________3C. Policy Options for Armenia________________________________________________________14 BOXES 1. Fiscal Rules___________________________________________________________________________42. Recent Refinements in Fiscal Framework_____________________________________________63. Examples of Countercyclicality_____________________________________________________154. Best Practices of Escape Clauses and Correction Mechanisms______________________16 FIGURES 1. Fiscal Policy (Non-Crisis Period)______________________________________________________92. Fiscal Rule Strength Index__________________________________________________________113. Fiscal Rule Strength Index in 2021__________________________________________________124. Baseline Index, 2005 Onward_______________________________________________________125. Rule Compliance—Middle-Income Average________________________________________13 TABLES 1. Adherence to the Capital Expenditure Rule__________________________________________72. Adherence to the Primary Current Expenditure Rule_________________________________73. Adherence to the Current Expenditure Rule Condition on Tax Revenues_____________7 References____________________________________________________________________________20 EVALUATING ARMENIA’S FISCAL FRAMEWORK A.Introduction 1.Establishing a robust fiscal framework has become increasingly critical forgovernments worldwide as they navigate elevated debt levels and evolving spendingdemands.A sound fiscal framework serves multiple interconnected objectives that collectively aimto promote macroeconomic stability, enhance resource allocation efficiency, and build public 2.The strategic value of fiscal frameworks is to improveresource allocation andplanningby extending the government's decision-making horizon beyond the traditionalannual budget cycle.Such a medium-term perspective enables policymakers to systematicallyconsider the implications of current spending and tax policies on future fiscal stances, facilitating 3.Fiscal rulesplay a pivotal role in operationalizing these broader framework objectivesby establishing specific, measurable constraints on key fiscal aggregates.These typically targetvariables such as debt, deficit, and expenditure levels. Fiscal rules serve as commitment devices thathelp governments signal their dedication to fiscal responsibility, thereby enhancingcredibilitywiththe public and financial markets.The design of fiscal rules must carefully balance several competing 4.The implementation of fiscal rules within broader fiscal frameworks has evolvedsignificantly over time, particularly following recent global crises.This evolution recognizes thateffective fiscal management requires not just numerical constraints, but comprehensive institutionalarrangements that integrate medium-term planning, robust forecasting capabilities, and strong day-to-day budgetary decision-making processes that promote both fiscal responsibility and 5.This Selected Issues Paper (SIP) evaluates the effectiveness of Armenia’s fiscalframework, with a specific focus on the design and implementation of fiscal rules.A soundfiscal framework is essential for achieving macroeconomic stability, ensuring fiscal discipline, andenhancing policy credibility. International experience suggests that fiscal rules, when well-designed, 6.The evaluation of Armenia's fiscal rules is of both theoretical and practical significance.A comprehensive assessment of how fiscal rules have served Armenia and whetherthey can be strengthened to improve both countercyclical effectiveness, operational flexibility,credibility, and transparency would provide valuable insights for the broader literature on optimalfiscal rule design in emerging markets. It is also timely to evaluate Armenia’s fiscal framework from B.Armenia’s Fiscal Framework Performance Overview of Armenia’s Fiscal Framework 7.Armenia’s fiscal framework includes an MTEF, an annual budget and a number of fiscalrules.Three key pieces of legislation set the underlying legal framework: 1) the Budgetary System •Th