博茨瓦纳：选定问题

IMF Country Report No.25/326 BOTSWANA SELECTED ISSUES December2025 This paperonBotswanawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund BOTSWANA SELECTED ISSUES November 4, 2025 Approved ByAfrican Department PreparedbyYomna Gaafar(RES),Emanuele Massetti(FAD),Alexis Meyer-Cirkel (AFR), Danielle Minnett (FAD), FilipposTagklis (FAD), Marina Mendes Tavares (RES), and Ann-AliceTicha (AFR). Sandra Paulaviciene (AFR) provided CONTENTS A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________ 4B. Falling Economic Complexity ________________________________________________________6C. Using WBES as a “Bottom Up” Tool ________________________________________________ 7D. Structural Reforms in Botswana – an Empirical Assessment _______________________ 15E. Lessons Learned and Policy Advice_________________________________________________ 20 FIGURES 1. Economic Complexity Index in SACU Countries _____________________________________52. Firm Perception of the Biggest Obstacle Faced _____________________________________83. Financial Market Depth Across Countries ___________________________________________94. Domestic Credit to Private Sector _________________________________________________ 105. Corruption Perception Index ______________________________________________________ 126. Structural Gaps____________________________________________________________________ 16 TABLE 1. Definitions of Structural Indicators ________________________________________________ 16 References___________________________________________________________________________ 23 STRUCTURAL REFORMS TO SUPPORT FISCAL CONSOLIDATION ________________________25 A. Introduction ________________________________________________________________________________ 25B. Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool and Design of a Revenue AdministrationReform Roadmap _____________________________________________________________________________ 26C. Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) _______________________________________ 28D. Improving the Financial Reporting Framework _____________________________________________ 35 FIGURES 1. PIMA Framework Diagram _________________________________________________________________ 292. Public Investment Comparison with Peers__________________________________________________ 313. Public Capital Stock per Capita, Comparison with Peers, 2019 _____________________________ 314. Capital Spending Efficiency Gap____________________________________________________________ 33 TABLE 1. Summary Assessment ______________________________________________________________________ 30 CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND ENERGY REFORM: STRENGTHENING BOTSWANA’SMACROECONOMIC RESILIENCE ____________________________________________________________42 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________________42B. Macroeconomic Risks from Climate Change_________________________________________________42C. Adaptation Policy Recommendations ______________________________________________________ 49D. Powering the Future: Accelerating Botswana’s Shift to Renewables ________________________ 50E. Conclusions _________________________________________________________________________________ 64 BOX1. South Africa’s Carbon Tax: A Pioneering Policy in Africa____________________________________ 60 FIGURES 1. Observed and Projected Changes in Average Annual Temperature and Total Annual Precipitation __________________________________________________________________________________ 43 2. Projected Changes in the Number of Hot Days (TX35) and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD)___ 453. Projected Changes in Extreme Rainfall (Rx1day and Rx5day) _______________________________ 46 4. Macroeconomic Effects of Warming and Weather Shocks _________________________________ 48 5. Implicit Subsidies___________________________________________________________________________ 52 6. CPAT Results Modelling the Updated IRP __________________________________________________ 54 7. CPAT Results from Applying Standard VAT on Diesel and Petrol ___________________________ 60 8. CPAT Results - Carbon Tax Starting at $5/tCO2 and Increasing to $25/tCO2 by2030 ______ 629. Distributional Impacts from the Modelled Carbon Tax _____________________________________ 63 TABLES 1. Capacity and Demand of Electricity in SAPP Countries _____________________________________ 552. Generation Expansion Plans for Other SAPP Countries _____________________________________ 563. Key features of Botswana’s Renewable Energy PPA Framework ____________________________