2025年市场动态更新

Markets Section Agenda 1. The Public Markets and the Al Ripple Effect 2. The Private Markets and Liquidity MERITECH 2025 Has Been Busy! The Guardian NewYorkTimes Yahoo Finance 'Sputnik moment': $itn wiped off USstocks after Chinese firm unveils Alchatbot Stock market today:Stock futures sinkafter Trump'sLiberation Day'tariffsshock markets Nuidia Becomes First Public CompanyWorth $4 Trillion Forbes Bloomberg Whv 95% Of AI Pilots Fail. And What BusinessLeaders Should Do Instead OpenAl Valuation Reaches $500Billion, Topping Musk's SpaceX Yahoo News Barrons The Al-generated ad that aired during the NBAfinals took $2,000 and 2 days to make IPO Mania Is Back. Is It the Dot-ComBubble All Over Again? Wall StreetJournal BBC Forbes House Passes Crypto Bills After TrumpRallies Republicans Trump unveils AI plan that aims toclampdownonregulationsand'bias Pew Study Finds 52% Of Workers Fear Al. MERITECH 2024 Retr0 + 2025 YTD ThePublic Markets and the Al Ripple Effect MERITECH CEO Mindset in the Al Race "The world will be divided between Alhaves and have-nots.' “Iamwillingtogobankruptratherthan lose this race." LarryPageA/phabet (Google)Co-Founder Alex KarpPalantir Co-Founder and CEO "A/ is a much bigger deal than theIndustrial Revolution,electricity, andeverything that's come before." “Alis going to change everyindustry[andboostproductivityof]every company in the world." JeffBezosAmazonFounderandChairman Larry EllisonOracleCo-FounderandChairman MERITECH The Investment to Win the Al Race is Unprecedented Al Adoption Rapidly Growing Across the Spectrum MERITECH And We're Just Getting Started.. Models are getting smarter and costs are going down, hence usage will continue to explode GPT-4 vs. GPT-5 Input and Output Price per 1M Tokens (2) "The cost to usea given levelof A/falls about 10xevery 12months."-SamAltman(Feb-25) Software is Now Labor: Agents to Touch Every Industry In Cloud 1.0, workflow created optimizations for humans. We'll soon be hiring agents and not buying software. MERITECH CEOs are Already Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud "Domorewiththesamenumberofpeoplebygivingthem[A/]superpowers.”-MaxLevchin,CEO “Beforeaskingformoreheadcount,teamsmustdemonstratewhytheycannotgetwhattheywantdoneusingAl."-TobiLutke "Myguess is that ouremploymentlevels will stayrelatively static."-Brian Moynihan,CEO duolingo830FTEs "We'llgraduallystopusingcontractorstodoworkthatA/canhandle."-LuisvonAhn,CEO “"A/isgoingtochangeliterallyeveryjob."-DougMcMillon,CEo "3o%ofnon-customer-facingrolescouldbereplacedbyA/and automations infiveyears.-ArvindKrishna,CEO “In2025,weplantoholdheadcountapproximatelyflatandutilizeA/todeliveroperationalefficiencies."-JeremyStoppelman yelp*5.1KFTEs JPMORGAN"WeexpectheadcountwilltrenddownbyaboutCHASE&CO.10%overthenext fiveyears."-MarianneLake317KFTESCEO of Consumer Banking We're Starting to Hire Agents Instead of Hiring People These are Not Just Talking Points... Robinhood hastransformedtheirbusinessand efficiencywiththehelpofAl Vlad TenevRobinhoodCEO “We'veinvestedearlyandaggressively in usingA/forboth ofthoseJengineeringandcustomersupportl, and it's having tremendousresults...andthat's abig partof whywe'vebeenabletodemonstratethisgrowth while keeping OpEx relativelyflat." MERITECH Productivity Gains Through Technology are Constant Technology gains have been consistent for decades Public SaaS: ls it Still a Growth Asset Class? The median growth rate of public SaaS has not rebounded from the highs (and may never) Perceived Al Winners Far Above the in Public Software MERITECH It Pays to be an Al Winner Public Market Takeaways Alissuperchargingpowerlawdynamicsinthepublicmarkets A shrinking set of companies is capturing a growing share of S&P and software returns - led by Al-enabled companies The‘toothpasteis out of the tube'on Al, but we're still in the early stagesModels are getting smarter and cheaper; agentic task duration is doubling roughly every ~7 months. Agents will ripplethroughevery industry Cloud 1.0 created ~s3T of value and agents could create 20-30x more. Labordisplacementhasbegun While tech companies are leading the way, even the most traditional companies are following suit. Publicsoftwareisthetaleoftwoworlds Aliscreatingtwoclassesofcompanieswithdramaticallydifferentprofilesandoutcomes MERITECH The Private Markets and Liquidity MERITECH Observations on Al Platform Shift (thus far!) Alismakinginvestingveryexciting-“EraofAgents'vs.incrementality Agentsareopeninggreenfieldmarketsand newbusinessmodels.Alisdemocratizingsuccessasthebestproducts/teamsarewinningandareunencumberedbyCloud1.odynamics.Wedebatemoatsconstantly,butthebestproducts/teams-asalways-mattermost. The industryis moving muchfasterthan Cloud 1.0 Iteration cycles are days and weeks, not quarters and years. Winners are moving fast. Cloud1.o/Saasisnot dead...it's justevolvingasAlisbeinginfusedintoall softwareEveryAlcompanystillhasanapplication.Itiswartimefo