2026年展望：微观胜于宏观

Europe IndustryUK & European Retail RetailRetail - Non Food 2026 Outlook: More Micro than Macro Adam Cochrane DB View Research Analyst+44-20-754-17812 2025 saw a wide dispersion in share price performance leaving us with a c.19x PEspread across our coverage with even c.5x across our UK coverage. We don't seefurther PE expansion for the 2025 outperformers in 2026. The UK and Europe are setfor another year of muted growth and this sees us favour inflation beneficiaries,space growth and stock specific investment cases. We rank our sub-sectorpreference and most and least preferred across each. Accordingly our MostPreferredsub sectors are Premium Discretionary(WOSG),Sporting Goods(adidas), European Clothing (Zalando) and Food Retail (Tesco) with our LeastPreferred DIY (Kingfisher), Discount (B&M) and UK Clothing (AB Foods). Alison LygoResearch Analyst+44-20-754-11724 Benjamin Yokyong-ZoegaResearch Analyst+44-20-754-12338 Do-Hyun Yoo Research Associate+44-20-754-19487 Investment themes for 2026 Shwetha RamachandranResearch Associate We prefer International over UK exposure (weak UK growth in disposable income,cost increases and slower GDP growth), inflation proofed winners (increasedconsumerspending on essential categories or specific products and costmanagement), net space growth stories (given less support from LFL in 2026) andgrowth compounders (funding further investment in the offer and increasing thecompetitive moat). Major areas of concern are retailers without a clear point ofconsumer differentiation, exposed to lower income demographics where spendingcapacity is limited and more discretionary home categories. We balance thisagainst valuations, which are approaching peak for high quality names. Recommendation changes We upgradeSainsbury's to Buy(PT to 350p from 310p) andWickes to Hold(PT to235p from 195p) anddowngrade Kingfisher to Sell(PT to 255p from 285p) andB&M to Hold(PT to 180p from 235p). Deutsche Bank AG Distributed on: 10/12/2025 05:02:37 GMTDistributed on: 10/12/2025 05:02:37 GMTIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank doesand seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm mayhave a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision. 10 December 2025Retail - Non FoodUK & European Retail Exec summary....................................................................4 Valuation .......................................................................... 15 Sector preferences ........................................................... 20 Premium discretionary .................................................................................... 21Sporting Goods................................................................................................23Food Retail.......................................................................................................26Electricals ........................................................................................................ 29Clothing...........................................................................................................30UK Clothing ..................................................................................................... 31Pets .................................................................................................................33Homeware and furniture..................................................................................34Discount retail ................................................................................................. 34Home Improvement.........................................................................................35 2026 key themes .............................................................. 38 K-shaped recovery...........................................................................................38Labour market weakness.................................................................................38Inflation set to moderate..................................................................................39Rate cuts coming through ............................................................................... 40Gross margin drivers .......................................................................................40Shift to Online..................................................................................................42UK Budget ....................................................................................................... 42UK vs International - Sales / EBIT exposure .................................................... 47 Confidence and spending.................................................48 UK Retail Indicators.......................................................