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The House ViewAnything but dull December 2025 Marion LaboureCamilla SiazonJim Reid Monthsin Review The House View, 2 December 2025Anything but dull Asweclosethechapteronaturbulentyear,theroadaheadlooksvolatilebutbroadlypositive.Thedominantthemein2026willbethetransformativepotentialofAI,whichwillcontinuetodriveproductivitygainsandfastergrowth. ThisrapidAIinvestmentandadoption,coupledwithongoingFedratecutsandmorecertaintyonthetradefront,meansthatourglobaleconomistsandstrategistsremainoptimistic.Notably,ourUSequitystrategisthasanS&P500targetof8,000foryear-end2026.Andweexpectglobalgrowthtoremainarounditslevelsoverthelastcoupleof Nevertheless,theregionaldriversofglobalgrowthareshifting,evenasitspaceremainssimilar.SoGermany,afteryearsofstagnation,issetforasignificantreboundof1.5%in2026and2027thankstonewfiscalstimulus.TherestofEuropemayseeaslightslowdownafter2025,butmomentumisexpectedtobuildthroughtheyear,evenifFrance’ssituationcontinuestoposerisksonthefiscalside.TheUSisforecasttogrowat2.4%in2026,drivenbyfadingtradeuncertainty,taxcutsboostinghouseholdincome,andbroadeninggrowthbeyondAI-relatedcapex,withpotentialforanAI-drivenproductivityboom.Finally,China'sgrowthissettomoderateto4.5%in2026duetoBeijing's"anti-involution" Ofcourse,afewkeyrisksremain.Despiterecedingtradetensions,theUS-Chinarivalrywillcontinuetocoalescearoundeachother’ssupplychainchokepoints–rareearthsandpharmaceuticalsuppliesvsleadingedgeGPUsand fabricationequipment–leavingmarketsvulnerabletosuddenescalation.IntheUS,recessionrisksaresomewhatelevatedagainduetoitsprecariouslabourmarket.Geopoliticalflashpointswillcontinuetosurpriseinvestorsandshockmarkets.And,inthishigherequilibriumrateenvironment,marketswillcloselywatchmajoreconomiesastheyembarkontheirexpansionaryfiscalplans,renewingconcernsarounddebtsustainability.Ourstrategistsalsoexpectyieldstomovehigherthisyear,withthe10yrUSTreaching4.45%,andthe10yrbundmovingupto3.10%.Thedollarshockis KEY RISK #1: Trade warTrade uncertainty is fading, but US-China flare ups across supply chain chokepoints will likely continue Global growth to benefit from receding trade policy uncertainty, with USeffective tariff rate likely to fall by several percentage points in 2026 ❑China and US negotiated a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs and oneyear extension of tariff truce and rare earth export restrictions. Keydate will be Trump’s planned visit to China in April 2026. ❑Europe still faces high trade uncertainty with 0.5% GDP cost fromUS tariffs. New trade frictions between US and EU a possibility. ❑Watchpoints:Supreme Court Ruling on IEEPA tariffs due in early2026. Court likely to curtail Trump’s use of IEEPA, reducing theeffective tariff rate. US-China trade rivalry continues to pose risks. Extension of the trade truceuntil next Nov reduces risks, but renewed tensions across strategic Timeline of recent tariff developments❑Rare earths and critical minerals:China has a near monopoly inrefining rare earths (91%), essential for tech anddefenceproduction.Despite western companies efforts to catch up, countries remainoverly reliant on Beijing, as the Oct 9 crisis underscored (seehere). ❑Semiconductors:China is the largest destination for chip exports.Beijing dominates legacy chips but lags in domestic production ofcutting-edge capabilities. In 2025, the US has implemented measures to cut off China by expanding export restrictions on advanced chips, ❑Watchpoint:Trump’s threats of 100% semiconductor tariffs in Augdelayed. KEY RISK #2:Fiscal fearsEasier fiscal policy in 2026 will help accelerate growth but exacerbate longer-term debt sustainability concernsGross public debt (% of GDP) High debt trajectories limit governments’ economic support ❑Higher equilibrium interest rates to apply upside pressure onglobal term premia, as major high-debt-to-GDP economiesstruggle with increased cost of servicing existing and newdebt. ❑Spotlight on the US, UK, Japan and France to continue in2026. Fiscal deficits to likely widen given current political Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Haver Analytics Case studies ❑US fiscal risks rising:We expect 2026 deficit to reach 6.7%,with further widening if we see lower tariff revenues or moretargeted fiscal stimulus that renews market concerns.Congress is also up against the clock to negotiate on ❑France’s political crisis:Meaningful fiscal consolidationdifficult due to fragmented parliament. The risk of a snaplegislative election if the current 2026 budget process fails KEY RISK #3: Heightened geopolitical risksHow prepared are investors for another year of political volatility? Highlightstowatchoutfor ❑Russia/Ukraine:WhilePresidentTrump’s28-pointpeaceplanhasbeenmetwithsignificantscepticism,theimplicationsofapossibleceasefirein2026foreverythingfromenergytoagriculture,metals,sanctions,defenceandUkrainianreconstructionshouldbecarefully ❑USMid-terms:Electionsforall435Congressseats,1/3ofSenateseats,andafewstateandlocalelectionsinNovemberwillbealitmustest of the Trump presidenc