世界+展望-2026，一点都不无聊

2026: Anything but dull Jim Reid 2026 promises to be anything but dull. Rapid AI investment and adoption willcontinueto dominate market sentiment.Given the pace of technologicaladvancement,it is difficult to believe this won’t translate into meaningfulproductivity gains ahead. However, the ultimate winners and losers will depend ona complex interplay of evolving factors, many of which may not become apparentuntil after 2026. In the meantime, markets could swing sharply between boom-and-bust narratives. While our global economists and strategists remain broadlypositive for 2026, expect no let-up in volatility. The 8,000 year-end S&P 500 targetfrom our US equity strategist — our most optimistic analyst — is notable given hisstrong track record. Global Head of Macro and Thematic Research+44-20-754-72943 David Folkerts-Landau, Ph.D.Group Chief Economist & Global Head ofResearch+44-20-754-55502 Global growth in real terms is expected to mirror 2024 and 2025, but the sources ofthat growth are shifting. TheUnited Statesis projected to re-accelerate as tradeuncertainty fades, household incomes benefit from tax cuts, and growth broadensbeyond AI-related capex.Germany, after years of stagnation, is positioned for oneof the most meaningful rebounds among major economies thanks to newlyunleashed fiscal stimulus. Europe ex-Germany should slow slightly off a strong2025, but momentum is expected to firm through the year.China’s growth is set tomoderate as “anti-involution” reforms reshape supply-side behaviour, whileIndiacontinues its structural ascent — likely surpassingJapanas the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2026 and on track to become the third-largest by 2028. Inflation continues to normalise across major economies, though not fully back topre-pandemic norms. As a result, central banks remain cautious: our economistsexpect the Fed to deliver only two further cuts before pausing, while theECBisexpected to stay on hold until a hike in mid-2027. Our rates strategists see upwardpressure on yields as equilibrium rates rise and global term premia rebuild, with10-year US Treasury yields projected to end 2026 at 4.45%. AI continues to shape market dynamics. Our equity strategists expect the earningscycle to broaden beyond mega-cap tech, with S&P 500 EPS reaching $320 (+14%)anda year-end target of 8000.They also remain overweight Europe butunderweightJapan. Credit spreads should widen modestly as the US cyclebecomes more uneven — echoing the late-1990s divergence between equities andcredit — while Emerging Markets enter 2026 from a position of strength.Meanwhile, our FX team expects the dollar’s multi-year bull market to continuefading, with EUR/USD forecast at 1.25 by year-end. Table Of ContentsOverview............................................................................3Key Event Risks to Watch in 2026......................................9United States....................................................................11Euro Area..........................................................................15Germany...........................................................................20United Kingdom...............................................................22Japan................................................................................24China................................................................................27India.................................................................................29Rates................................................................................31FX.....................................................................................33Credit................................................................................35Equities.............................................................................38Emerging Markets............................................................40Crude Oil...........................................................................42 Overview 2026 promises to be anything but dull. The rapid growth in AI investment andadoptionwill continue to dominate market sentiment.Given the observedadvancements in the technology, it is almost impossible to believe that this won’ttranslate into significant productivity gains in the years ahead. However, theultimate winners and losers will hinge on a complex interplay of evolving factors,many of which may not become apparent until after 2026. In the meantime,markets could easily swing dramatically between boom-and-bust narratives,irrespective of their eventual destination. So, while our global economists andstrategists are largely positive for 2026, expect no lay-up in volatility and sentimentswings. The 8,000 year-end S&P 500 target from our US equity strategist, our mostoptimistic analyst, is notable given his successful track record over the last decade. Figure2: DB GDP growth forecasts The world economy in real terms is expected to grow at similar rates in 2026 to thos