2026展望：创新驱动机遇

2026 OUTLOOKInnovation DrivesOpportunities 1 Key Highlights On the Horizon in 2026 Global Growth Remains Resilient Bonds Reassert Their Value Broadening Earnings Power Equities AI Megatrends Attract Attention Digital Assets Gain Traction Risks on the Radar Closing Thoughts CLIENTS AND FRIENDS, As 2025 draws to a close and we review the key milestones of the year,I’m reminded of the movieEverything Everywhere All At Once. From tariffand geopolitical uncertainty to artificial intelligence (AI) breakthroughsand resilient global growth, it has been a momentous year. And yet, at the I am excited to introduce our2026 Outlook:Innovation Drives Opportunities.The U.S. has been unparalleled throughout history in nurturing innovation,a critical competitive advantage supporting U.S. economic leadership.Theeconomy’s ability to funnel investment capital toward new frontiers in all As your wealth manager, we challenge ourselves to identify the compellinginvestment opportunities within the megatrends that will impact portfoliosand our lives for decades to come. The AI revolution is only in its earlyinnings and is already reshaping energy and infrastructure demands inaddition to changing how we work. AI-driven innovations also abound in We are privileged that you place your trust in us every day to sustain andgrow your family wealth across generations. From all of us at BNY Wealth, SINEADCOLTONGRANTChief Investment Officer, BNY Wealth KEY HIGHLIGHTS GLOBAL GROWTH REMAINS RESILIENTU.S. economic leadership is still intact.Technological innovation, rising productivity and supportive policiessolidify a U.S. economic advantage. BONDS REASSERT THEIR VALUE Bonds resume their traditional role of providingportfolio stability, income and diversification. Be active in bonds to navigate interest rate volatility and uncoverattractive opportunities across fixed income sectors. BROADENING EARNINGS POWER EQUITIES Earnings broaden due to rising profit margins,monetary easing and beneficial government policy. Prioritize U.S. large cap equities, where we maintain an overweight.Watch Information Technology, Industrials and Financials for potential upside. AI MEGATRENDS ATTRACT ATTENTIONArtificial intelligence (AI) continues to attract new capital. Harness the power of AI through private markets, including venture capital,infrastructure and energy opportunities. DIGITAL ASSETS GAIN TRACTIONFrom crypto to tokenization, digital assets are becoming more prominent as growing regulatory clarity provides a tailwind.Explore ways to gain select digital asset exposure through private equity and venture capital. ON THE HORIZON IN 2026 2025 began with uncertainty. Tariff announcementsearly in the year sparked volatility across markets, raisingconcerns about growth and inflation. Yet, despite these We anticipated that growth would remain steady in 2025, supportedby solid consumer spending and a “good enough” job market. Inflationstruggled to reach the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% target, but signs ofsoftening in the labor market allowed the central bank to restart the easing As we turn the page to 2026,we expect range-bound inflation,lower interestrates and AI-driven earnings growth. Corporations should benefit fromFed easing, pro-growth policy provisions and improved profit margins.Meanwhile, consumers will benefit from increased stimulus as a result of Although our outlook is not without risks, this backdrop makes us generallyoptimistic about the new year. Given AI’s productivity gains and increasedadoption, we believe innovation is the cornerstone to some of the most GLOBAL GROWTHREMAINS RESILIENT U.S. CONTINUES TO LEAD In 2026, we expect U.S. economic leadership to endure,driven by productivity gains, a resilient consumer baseand pro-growth fiscal policy. These factors should allow theeconomy to deliver modest growth of 1.7–2.3%, surpassing SHIFTING LABOR DYNAMIC In the past year, structural and cyclical forces have changed the labormarket dynamic. Aging demographics and immigration policy havereduced the labor supply, while tariff uncertainty and the adoption of AIhave softened the near-term demand for labor. As a result, job growth However, adoption of AI is expected to increase productivity throughautomation, data-driven decision-making and workflow optimization.After two decades of below-average U.S. productivity, the measure is onthe rise, up 1.7% on an annualized basis over the last 10 years, and we CONSUMER STRENGTH Accounting for 70% of GDP, consumption remains a critical part of thegrowth story. Rising asset values (stocks and housing), known as thewealth effect, have continued to strengthen household balance sheets.According to the Fed, since 2020, household net worth has increased from Aggregate consumer spending has remained robust, especially among thehigh-income cohorts. However, signs of strain are now starting to appearamong lower-income consumers, as evidenced by a rise in delinquencyrates on c