2026展望：创新驱动机遇

2026 OUTLOOKInnovation DrivesOpportunities CONTENTS Letter from Our CIO Key Highlights On the Horizon in 2026 01.Global Growth Remains Resilient 02.Bonds Reassert Their Value 03.Broadening Earnings Power Equities 04.AI Megatrends Attract Attention 05.Digital Assets Gain Traction 26 Risks on the Radar 28 Closing Thoughts 30 CLIENTS AND FRIENDS, As 2025 draws to a close and we review the key milestones of the year,I’m reminded of the movieEverything Everywhere All At Once. From tariffand geopolitical uncertainty to artificial intelligence (AI) breakthroughsand resilient global growth, it has been a momentous year. And yet, at thetime of writing, equities around the globe have powered higher, with mostmarkets up more than 10% on the year. I am excited to introduce our2026 Outlook:Innovation Drives Opportunities.The U.S. has been unparalleled throughout history in nurturing innovation,a critical competitive advantage supporting U.S. economic leadership.Theeconomy’s ability to funnel investment capital toward new frontiers in allindustries not only leads to scientific and technological breakthroughs butalso creates exciting opportunities for investors. As your wealth manager, we challenge ourselves to identify the compellinginvestment opportunities within the megatrends that will impact portfoliosand our lives for decades to come. The AI revolution is only in its earlyinnings and is already reshaping energy and infrastructure demands inaddition to changing how we work. AI-driven innovations also abound inmanufacturing, biotech and retail. In such a rapidly evolving environment,the due diligence we undertake becomes even more essential, as withevery evolution there are investments that soar and those that lose out. We are privileged that you place your trust in us every day to sustain andgrow your family wealth across generations. From all of us at BNY Wealth,we wish you and your families health and happiness in the new year. KEY HIGHLIGHTS GLOBAL GROWTH REMAINS RESILIENTU.S. economic leadership is still intact. Technological innovation, rising productivity and supportive policiessolidify a U.S. economic advantage. BONDS REASSERT THEIR VALUE Bonds resume their traditional role of providingportfolio stability, income and diversification. Be active in bonds to navigate interest rate volatility and uncoverattractive opportunities across fixed income sectors. BROADENING EARNINGS POWER EQUITIESEarnings broaden due to rising profit margins, monetary easing and beneficial government policy. Prioritize U.S. large cap equities, where we maintain an overweight.Watch Information Technology, Industrials and Financials for potential upside. AI MEGATRENDS ATTRACT ATTENTIONArtificial intelligence (AI) continues to attract new capital. Harness the power of AI through private markets, including venture capital,infrastructure and energy opportunities. DIGITAL ASSETS GAIN TRACTIONFrom crypto to tokenization, digital assets are becoming more prominent as growing regulatory clarity provides a tailwind.Explore ways to gain select digital asset exposure through private equity and venture capital. ON THE HORIZON IN 2026 2025 began with uncertainty. Tariff announcementsearly in the year sparked volatility across markets, raisingconcerns about growth and inflation. Yet, despite theseheadwinds, the U.S. economy and markets demonstratedremarkable resilience. We anticipated that growth would remain steady in 2025, supportedby solid consumer spending and a “good enough” job market. Inflationstruggled to reach the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% target, but signs ofsoftening in the labor market allowed the central bank to restart the easingcycle it began in 2024. Equity markets stabilized as earnings improved andbegan broadening beyond big technology names. As we turn the page to 2026,we expect range-bound inflation,lower interestrates and AI-driven earnings growth. Corporations should benefit fromFed easing, pro-growth policy provisions and improved profit margins.Meanwhile, consumers will benefit from increased stimulus as a result ofthe One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and lowered borrowing costs as theFed continues to reduce rates. Although our outlook is not without risks, this backdrop makes us generallyoptimistic about the new year. Given AI’s productivity gains and increasedadoption, we believe innovation is the cornerstone to some of the mostattractive opportunities we see on the horizon. GLOBAL GROWTHREMAINS RESILIENT U.S. CONTINUES TO LEAD In 2026, we expect U.S. economic leadership to endure,driven by productivity gains, a resilient consumer baseand pro-growth fiscal policy. These factors should allow theeconomy to deliver modest growth of 1.7–2.3%, surpassingthat of other developed countries. SHIFTING LABOR DYNAMIC In the past year, structural and cyclical forces have changed the labormarket dynamic. Aging demographics and immigration policy havereduced the labor supply, while tariff uncert