中国医疗健康行业：GLP-1专家电话会议核心要点

EQUITY: HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS GLP-1 expert call takeaways China Health Care &Pharmaceuticals Discussion centered on the recent clinical progress andcommercial updates in the China market Jialin Zhang, CFA, CPA - NIHKialin.zhang@nomura.com+852 2252 6134 On 15 Dec, we hosted an expert call with a seasoned professional in the area of GLP-1drugs. During the call, the expert shared his insights on the recent clinical developmentand his thoughts on the comestic GLP-1 market. Below, we provide a summary of the expert call. Three updates highlighted: (1) siRNA; (2) orforglipron; and (3) retatrutide The expert started with talking about the INLIGHT study by Wave Life Science (WVE USNot rated), a phase I clinical trial of WVE-007 (INHBE GalNAc-siRNA) that differsmechanically with GLP-1 drugs on weight management. According to him, the data set forthe study was promising: 9.4% reduction on visceral fat with 3.2% gain on lean mass(mainly muscle) one of the pain points of GLP-1 drvgs that results in loss of both fat andother drugs to better manage body weight, should further late-stage clinical trials involvinga large population indicate similar efficacy. The expert's second talking point was about smallmolecule oral GLP-1 drugs, includingorforglipron from Eli Lilly (LLY US, Not rated), and aleniglipron from StructureTherapeutics (GPCR US, Not rated). According to the expert, he ataches muchimportance to the efficacy of orforglipron as a simall molecule GLP-1 drug. Foraleniglipron, he highlighted that a higher manufacturing cost might be associeated with thehigh dosing requirements of this molecule (120mg that shows linear high efficacy). On thebusiness development outlook for small molecules in China, the expert noted that thenumber of potential buyers is on a decline, as several MNCs have already bagged suchmolecule(s) from China. For Eli Lilly's retatrutide, the expert believes this triple-agonist (GIP/GLP-1/glucagon)molecule is likely to set another body weight reduction bar: the TRIUMPH-4 clinical trialdermonstrateod a 28.7% change in body weight (12mg, 68w) with 4.4 point WOMACirnproverient. But he reminded that investors keep a tab on the long-tern side effects ofdysesthesia (20.9% for 12mig sgroup), which can be monitored through upcoming dataand TRIUM PH-3 (obxesity and CVD) etc in 2026. China market updates: potentially significant price cuts of GLP-1s can be offset byhigher market penetration Recently investors have spoken a lot about the yet-to-be-announcod NRDL price oftirzepatide (see our report: China healthcare - 2025 NRDL and the first CHIDDreleased ). The expert believes that even if tirzepatide cut prices significantly, the overalGLP-1 drug market has sizabilc growth potential, as more patients would be able to affordthese drugs. For dornestically competing drugs mazdutide frorn Innovent (1501 HK,Buy) for example the expert anticipates them to follow the tirzepatide pricing strategy.narnely, lowering prices to match the prices of tirzepatide. We share the expert's view that rmore and mcre rnolecules would make the China markecrowded (prices will likely go lower as rnore products are launched), and we believe that2026 could mark a vital yecar for Innovent, EI Lily, and Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC, Notrated), along with several polential sernaglutide generics makers, to cornpele in thislucrative rnarket, Going ahead, we expect leading Chinese companies, including Innoventand Hengrui (600276 CH/1276 HK, Buy), to pcse a strong cormpetition to the global duopolyEli Lily and Novo Nordisk while simaller players could eye collaborafion in this ara. Frod,tton Corrplels: 2325-12-:5 13+7 UTC Appendix A-1 This report has been produced by Nomura Irternaticnal (Hong Kong) Ltd. (NIHK), Hsng Kong.Sae Disclaimers far Namura Group nntity dntais Analyst Certification I, Jlalin Zhang, hereby certity (1) that the views expreBsed In this Research regot accurately refiect my personal vlews about ary or ell of thethe specific recommendations or views expressed in this Resesrch report and (3) nc psrt of my compensation is tied to any specific Investment Issuer Specific Regulatory Disclosures The lerms Normura" and Norura Group used herein refer lo Nomura Holdings, Inc. arnd its afilistes and subsidiaries, including NoruraSecurities Intemstional, Inc. (NSI') snd Instinet, LLC (ILLC'), U. S. registered broker ceslers and mamters of SIFC. Hengrui (1276 HK) Esr earlsnstien cef sinek mlar Ia ths rtuck ralina kess Ixcstedl ather thsrs:Valuation Methodology Our target price of HKD105.08 is based on DCF model (discount back to end-2025), assuming WACCor 10.3% and a terminal growth of 4.0%. The benchmark index for the stock is Hang Seng Index. Valuation Methodology Our target price of CNY78.21 is based on a DCF model assuming WACC of 8.7% and terminal growthof 5%. The benchmark index for the stock is Csi 300.Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Downside risks include: (1) price cuts in ne