中国自动化行业专家电话会议要点

IndustryChina automationeC Iris Zheng, CFAResearch Analyst+852-22035884Gael de-Bray, CFAResearch Analyst+33-1-4495-6562Nicole DeBlaseResearch Analyst+1-212-250-5916Companies featuredABB Ltd. (ABBN.S),CHF46.78Siemens AG (SIEGn.DE),EUR216.00Schneider Electric(SCHN.PA),EUR221.90Inovance (300124.SZ),CNY64.11Supcon (688777.SS),CNY44.41Haitian International(1882.HK),HKD20.65AirTAC (1590.TW),TWD861.00Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE),EUR92.56Legrand (LEGD.PA),EUR112.00Kion (KGX.DE),EUR51.35Alstom SA (ALSO.PA),EUR19.14 7 July2025ManufacturingChina automationImplications to European Capital Goods (covered by Gael de-Bray )Within our group, Siemens (Hold) is by far the most exposed to the Chineseautomation sector. For nearly 2 years, destocking has been a major drag.particularly for high-end products (e.g. large PLCs) and is finally approachingcompletion. Competition has intensified locally for low/mid categories but thegroup's Tiger program (locally designed andmanufactured products)appearsto begetting positive traction. Overall, we expect the group's automation business togrow revenues MsD organically in fiscal Q3, in positive territoryforthe first time in2 years. ABB (Sell) is mainly exposed to the Chinese automation sector via itsrobotic business for which we see orders trending down in coming quarters due tolower automotive systems orders and more competition from locals. ABB recentlyindicated that it intends to spin off its robotics business in the course of 2026.Schneider (Hold) is better known forthe strength of its electrification franchise thanforthegualityof itsautomationproductofferings inChina.Inthebroadercapitalgoods sector, we continue to prefer BUY-rated Siemens Energy, Legrand, KioNand Alstom.Key takeaways from the expert callMarket growth to slow down in 2H25. The expert saw about +10% yoy automationmarket growth in 1H25 off a low base in 2024. For 2H25, the visibility is very low dueto tariff disruptions. The expert expects market growth to slow down to 0-5% aftersome front-loading and inventory building in 1H25.Localisation trend.The expert divides automation customers into three groups: (1)Chinese manufacturers manufacturing for domestic consumption: thesecustomers procure automation and software from local brands because ofgeopolitical concerns;(2)infrastructure customers:these customers are alsopurchasing more from local brands - e.g. for end-markets such as nuclear,municipal and power grids, Siemens and ABB-ysed to be strong, but customers arenow switching to domestic brands for stability concerns; for process automationend-markets such as petrochemicalccustomers are switching to Hollysys andSupcon from Siemens, EmergpnSnd Honeywell; and (3) manufacturers whoseproducts are for the interpatiohal market: as products are requested by the veryend customers, these manufacturers still use foreign automation products - e.g.forautomotive assemblyend customers tendtopreferSiemens,andfortilemanufacturing, end customers tend to prefer Rockwell. The expert thinks the thirdcustomer group accounts for the majority of 60-70% of the market.China's role as a global manufacturing hub post tariff. The expert divides Chinesemanufacturers broadly into two groups: (1) state-owned manufacturers: they arenot expanding internationally and are sticking to China; and (2) privately-ownedmanufacturers: for manufacturers such as battery, tile and appliancemanufacturers, they are flexible and started international expansion five years agoand the expert sees this trend accelerating - these manufacturers do not procurefrom Chinese brands and make purchases depending on where the factories are.Views on different brands. Below are views from the expert:Inovance: The expert is optimistic about Inovance's ability to continue togain market share in servo and inverter as well as small PLC. However, hedoes not believe Inovance can catch up quickly in the large PLC market duetoitsdistributionmindset (the expertdid notelaborate)andthe stickinessof customers.Page 2 7July2025ManufacturingChina automationSupcon: The expert believes Supcon is switching from a product companyto a solutions company. He points out that Supcon is streamlining itscontrol products and making them into standardised products for differentprojects.This helps to reduce on-site engineering labour time and failurerate - the expert appreciates this approach and he thinks Supcon can gainmarket share aggressively.Siemens: As part of the "Tiger" program, Siemens relaunched the 1200series small PLCs. The expert likes the products, which are low-cost and ofgood functionality. The expert complained about Siemens' hierarchicdecision making for pricing, but Siemens has since adjusted and given thegeographic sales team more decision-making power from the productteam. He thinks so far the Tiger program has been successful, but it is tooearly to see the final result.Schneider: The expert does not see Schneider's automation productoffering being strong.Omron:TheexpertthinksOmronhasamo