季节性思考：凛冬将至

-in pursuit of real returns- Seasonal Reflections Winter Is Coming Dear readers, I hope you had a wonderful summer andare enjoyinganequally lovelyautumn. For me, the highlight of the summer was a family holiday in Ireland,during whichI alsocelebrated my60thbirthday. I readily admit that I didn't really feel like celebrating on this occasion, Thiswas not onlydue tomy recollection of how I perceived60-year-oldsduringmy youth,namely really old,i.e. pensioners,grandfathersand oftenharassedby physical ailments. It was also Musically,thiswasaptlyreflectedinJohn Mayer's "IGuessI Just FeelLike". For those of you whocan relate tothis mood,I Lough Léin, Killarney, Ireland, 10AUG25,HGSPhoto -Macro thoughts......................................................................p. 2-A look into the Middle Kingdom …..………………………….....p.5-What’s happening inthe rest of theworld.........................p.9-Active investing ......................................................................p. 17-Areview ofourthemeselection ……....................................p.19-Life outside theequity themes…..........................................p. 27 Incrementum All Seasons Fund -in pursuit of real returns- The views, analyses and forecasts contained in this document arebased on current market conditions and reflect the opinion of the author. Allinformationhas been compiled from sources believed to be reliable.However,no assurance or guarantee is given as to its accuracy orcompleteness.Seasonal Reflectionsare issued to registered subscribers for Whenconsideringwhat to write about in thisissue, I decided to take mycue from our updated fund presentation, which we gave These areshapedbyanumber oflong-termmacro-economic and socialtrendsthatare leadingtoprofoundchanges,whichare One example is the changingdemographic situation,which is characterised by arapidly ageing Incrementum All Seasons Fund -in pursuit of real returns- Stagnating or even declining populationnumbersnot onlyeffectivelyslow down growth(afterall,GDP growth = population growthXproductivity growth), but also call into question thesustainability of pay-as-you-gopension andsocial security systems.Furthermore,suchdemographic Allthis woulddemanda state thatis willing and ready to respond to these developments withadequateand progressivestructural changes. Instead, almost everywhere in the world we are seeingincreased andrising government spending, accompanied by growing interference in the(notmerely This has also resulted inthereversal of the former wave of globalisation, whichhadbroughtthe world a long period of low inflation. The Covid years in particularshowed the heighteneddependencies on global supply chains, andtherapidrise of China's industrial competitivenesson almost Incrementum All Seasons Fund -in pursuit of real returns- At the same time, the boom in financial and real estate markets associated with lax monetaryand expansionary fiscal policy hascreated an asset bubble andsupported economic growth with its The illusion ofgrowingprosperity created by the expanding asset andincreasinglyspeculativebubble hasalsoled to necessary investments in infrastructure and development/education beingneglected, particularly intheUSA, but also in Europe,atrendthat many countries are now seeking tocounter with externally financed investment programmes.In aninternationalmarket-basedsystem, Added to this isanobviousand growingscarcity of resources, which is reflected in particular inChina's global investments in raw materialsexploration andprojects, but also in recent effortsbytheUSA to become independent of its Far Eastern competitoras far as the procurement ofrare earthsis In our view,all of this has a dampening effect on growth and fuels inflation, which,given thechronic level of government debt, makes a period of higher inflation appear to betheonly viablesolution.The massive mountains of debt in the US,Europe and Japan make monetary policynormalisationincreasinglyunrealistic.Instead,andwith the help of financial repression, expansionaryfiscal policy and negative real interest rateswe expectto seereflationin the future.Intheassociated In order toavoidthiseffectand the associated downward pressure on share and property prices,central banks will probably have to resume bond purchases soon. The US Federal Reserve already tooka step in this direction at its last meeting when it decided to abandon net sales of government bonds Incrementum All Seasons Fund -in pursuit of real returns- From here, it is only a small step to return to quantitative easing (QE) on a net basis, i.e. renewednetpurchases of(government)bonds with the aim of keeping interest rates in check for both thegovernment and the private sector.Such a move would likely be accompanied by rising interest rates at A look atthe Middle Kingdom As I regularlyreporton the situation in the US on these pages,I would liketo take thisopportunity, inspired by my recent trip to Asia, to focus onanother i