全球石油和天然气并购展望 2025年第三季度

IndustryInsights Global Oil and Gas Q3 2025 Executive Summary Table of Contents In this edition of our Global Oil and Gas M&A Outlook, we examine and evaluate currenttrends for commodity prices, leading sector indicators, valuation developments, M&Adealsperformed during the quarter and the developments in featured specialty Our top insights for this edition are as follows: •The numbers for Q3 2025 show 59 announced deals, with a total disclosed value of USD41.2 bn. This represents a QoQ decline of 11% in the number of M&A transactions (7 •In Q3 2025, transaction activity declined relative to the previous quarter, with fewer large-scale deals observed as portfolios consolidated and shifted focus on selective asset •North America led the M&A activity with 57.6% of the total deals announced globally,followed by Asia Pacific countries, which had a 16.9% share of the disclosed deals. •Commodity price volatility was contained throughout the third quarter of 2025. Despitegeopolitical tensions in the Middle East, increased production from OPEC+ countries •The top countries in LNG global commercial flow during Q3 2025 were the U.S., Qatar andAustralia as main exporters, and China, Japan and South Korea as main importers. Economic Environment Key Considerations •In September 2025, the U.S. Federal Reserve reduced itsinterest rate by 0.25%, setting the overnight funds ratewithin a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. The Fed also signaledits intention to implement two additional rate cuts before •The U.S. had recorded an annual inflation rate of 3.0% byQ3 2025. Although inflation remains above theFed’s2.0%target,monetary policy decisions have focused on •Market expectations of lower interest rates have driven increased interest in U.S. equities, resulting in strong QoQperformance across major indices. The S&P 500 reached anall-time high during September and a 7.8% QoQ increase. •MSCI Europe recorded a 3.3%QoQ gain,while theeurozoneannual inflation rate reached 2.2%as ofSeptember 2025.With inflation aligning closely to the •As for the MSCI China and MSCI Emerging Markets indices,both registered a QoQ increase, with 20.1% and 10.7%, Economic Environment FX Rates of Key Currency Pairs Key Considerations •During Q3 2025, theFED’sdecision to lower interest rates reduced the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, hence, lowering demand for the currency.This, combined with uncertainty related to U.S. tariffs announcements, has contributed to a weakening of the U.S. dollar against major FX Pairs. Market Statistics Key Considerations •This quarter, LNG activity increased compared to Q22025, driven mainly by rising demand from Europe and •Throughout Q3 2025,the United States,Qatar andAustralialed the LNG export market,collectively •In Q3 2025, the U.S. registered a 4.4% growth QoQ,with a total exported volume of 28.5 MMt. Meanwhile,Qatar experienced QoQ growth equivalent to 2.6% (20.6MMt)and Australia registered 0.2%growth QoQ in •The U.S. is expected to remain theworld’sleading LNGexporter, driven by the renewed issuance of long-termexport permits and a growing infrastructure network, •Australia has the leading role in supplying LNG to Asianmarkets, due to its geographic proximity. However, itshigher production costs compared to Qatar and the U.S.threaten future market share in the region by limiting Market Statistics Key Considerations •In Q3 2025, total LNG demand registered a 4.0% QoQgrowth. •The Eastern Asia region was the major LNG importerglobally, with 49.9 MMt demanded, equivalent to 45.9% •As in the previous quarter, China remains the LNG topbuyer, with 16.7 MMt, followed by Japan with 15.5 MMtand South Korea registering 11.2 MMt of LNG imports. •Asia positions itself as theworld’slargest LNG demandhub,driven by increasing industrial requirements andenergy transition goals that prioritize gas over coal for •Seasonal factors influence LNG demand dynamics. In Q3,demandtypically rises compared to Q2,as countriesbuild up storage in preparation for the winter months, •After Eastern Asia, Western Europe is the second-largest region for the LNG import market, totaling 23.7 MMt andrepresenting 21.8% of global imports. Leading Sector Indicators Key Considerations YoY Monthly Average Rig Count: •The number of global rigs decreased by 34, representing a2.0% YoY decline, which was largely due to shifts to tech-driven efficiency; fewer rigs produced more, powered by •The U.S and Middle East lead the global rig count. TheU.S.represents 33.3%of total activity worldwide, QoQ Rig Count: •In Q3 2025, the data provider (Baker Hughes) revised therigcount methodology to include all operating rigs inSaudiArabia,whereas previous editions reported only •The methodological adjustment was particular to SaudiArabia to fully reflect thecountry’supstream capacity, dueto large number of rigs on standby, but ready to drill.Therefore, the apparent shift in Middle East figures results •For the rest of the countries,