中国白银期货研究框架
2025/12/12 More English Reports on【CITIC Futures International Service Platform】https://internationalservice.citicsf.com QualificationNo.F3023159从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0013632投资咨询号 QualificationNo.F03138401从业资格号InvestmentconsultingNo.Z0021426投资咨询号 ZhuShanying朱善颖 GuiChenxi桂晨曦 China Futures Research Framework 中国期货研究框架系列报告https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Energy & Chemicals能化 Macro Economy宏观 20240201 China Crude Oil Futures Framework中国原油期货研究框架20240619 China LPG Research Framework中国液化石油气研究框架20240202 China PTA Futures Framework中国PTA期货研究框架20240725 China LLDPE Research Framework中国塑料期货研究框架20250123 China Methanol Futures Framework中国甲醇期货研究框架20240920 China Urea Research Framework中国尿素期货投研框架20241009 China SCFIS(EUROPE) Research Framework中国集运指数研究框架 20240717 China Macro Economy Framework中国宏观经济研究框架20240814 US Macro Economy Framework美国宏观经济研究框架 Equity Index股指 20240130 China Equity Index Futures Framework中国股指期货研究框架20241119 H.K. Equity Index Futures Framework港股期货分析框架20251125 Hang Seng Biotech Index Research Framework恒生生物科技指数研究框架 National Bond国债 Agricultural Products农业 20240131 China Government Bond Futures Framework中国国债期货研究框架20241016 US Treasury Bond Research Framework美国国债研究框架 20250811 China Soybean Meal Research Framework中国豆粕期货研究框架20251015 China Soybean Oil Research Framework中国豆油期货研究框架20250425 China Rapeseed Meal Research Framework中国菜粕研究框架20250521 China Rapeseed Oil Research Framework中国菜油研究框架20250826 China Palm Oil Futures Research Framework中国棕榈油期货研究框架20240208 China Live Hog Futures Framework中国生猪期货研究框架20250425 China Corn Price Long-cycle Review中国玉米价格长周期复盘20250722 China Natural Rubber Research Framework中国天然橡胶期货研究框架 Exchange Rate汇率 20250124 Exchange Rate Analysis Framework汇率分析框架20250221 Long-Term Framework of The US Dollar Index美元指数长周期框架 Risk Management风险管理 20250924 China Steel Futures钢材套保/20250701 China Iron Ore Futures铁矿石套保/20251127Iron Ore Delivery铁矿石交割/20251128 Iron Ore Basis铁矿石基差20250618 China Plastic Futures塑料期货/20250528China Freight Futures航运期货 Metals金属 This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business. The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constitute20240205 China Gold Futures Framework中国黄金期货研究框架20240206 China Copper Futures Framework中国铜期货研究框架20240207 China Iron Ore Futures Framework中国铁矿石期货研究框架20240808 China Steels Research Framework中国钢材产业研究框架20240618 China Lithium Research Framework中国锂产业研究框架20241209 Silicon Metal Research Framework工业硅研究框架 Cross Border Arbitrage跨境套利 investment advice to anyone. CITIC Futures do not consider relevant personnel as client due to the attention, receipt, or reading of this report20251031 Metal钢材/20250912 Palm Oil棕油/20250325 Natural Rubber天然橡胶/20250116 Soybean豆类/20250115 Copper铜/20250114 Iron Ore铁矿石/20221104Crude Oil原油/20240830 Statistical Regression Strategy Model中国期货跨境套利统计回归/20250731 China Equity Index and ETF Options中国股指期权与ETF期权套利 目录CONTENT 02Silver Contract白银合约 01Industrial Chain供需概况 定价模式 Summary 摘要 Silversupplymainlyfrommineralproductionandrecycling;demandconsistsofindustrialuse,investmentuse,photographicuse,andjewelryuse.Regardingsilverprices:first,thesilverinventory-to-demandratioexceeds100%,resultinginlimitedimpactofchangesinsupply-demandgapsonprices;second,silverpricesmainlyfluctuatefollowinggoldprices,withelasticityinfluencedbyindustrialattributes;third,thegold-silverratioisnegativelycorrelatedwithcopperpricesandrisesduringtheFederalReserve'sinterestratecuttingcycle. China‘ssilvercontractsincludephysicaltradingandmargintrading（Au(T+D)）ontheShanghaiGoldExchange(SGE),aswellasthesilverfuturescontract(Ag)ontheShanghaiFuturesExchange(SHFE).MajoroverseassilvercontractsconsistofLondonSilverSpotandCOMEXSilverFutures.WhencalculatingtheChina-overseaspricespread,attentionshouldbepaidtodifferencesinmeasurementunits,exchangeratefluctuations,andvalue-addedtax(VAT). 白银供应主要来自矿产开发和回收利用，需求分为工业用银、投资用银、摄影用银以及首饰用银。银价方面，一是，白银库存需求比超过100%，导致供需缺口变动对价格的影响较小；二是，银价主要跟随金价波动，弹性受工业属性影响；三是，金银比价和铜价负相关，并在美联储降息周期中上行。 中国白银合约有上海黄金交易所的Ag99.99现货即期合约、Ag(T+D)的现货延期交收合约，以及上海期货交易所的Ag白银期货合约。外盘白银合约主要有伦敦银现和COMEX白银期货。计算内外价差时，需要注意计量单位、汇率波动和增值税差异。 Risks:Monetarypolicy,geopolitics,andrulerevisions,Etc. 风险提示：货币政策、地缘政治、规则修订等 Industrial Chain 产业链 1.1 Industry Chain ▫Supply: mining, recycling, official sales, etc. ▫Demand: Primarily comprises industrial use, investment demand, photographic applications, and jewelry manufacturing. ▫供给：分为矿产、回收利用、官方销售。 ▫需求：主要由工业用银、投资用银、摄影用银以及首饰用银组成。 1.2.1 Balance Sheet: Global 全球供需平衡表 1.2.2 Balance Sheet: China 中国供需平衡表 Silver Contract 白银合约 2.1 SGE Margin Contracts 2.2 SHFE Futures Contract 2.3 Silver Price Spread 白银内外价差 ▫Price Spread = SGE Silver–Loco London/31.1035 (troyounce) * VAT rate * RMB exchange rate▫内外价差=内盘人民币计价白银-外盘美元计价白银/31.1035(金衡盎司）*增值税率*人民币汇率 Pricing Model 定价模式 3.1 Limited Sensitivity to Supply-Demand Fluctuations银价受供需影响较小 ▫With silver's inventory-to-demand ratio exceeding 100% and its absolute inventory level being relatively high, fluctuations in the supply-dema
